ADA’s October Struggle: Market Liquidations vs. Institutional Confidence

Cardano (ADA) faces a critical juncture in October 2025 as market dynamics shift amid volatile price movements and significant liquidation events. Recent data from CoinGlass and gate.com indicate that ADA liquidations have surged, with long positions dominating the $1.2 billion in total liquidations recorded over a 24-hour period. This trend, coupled with a 15.7% drop in ADA’s price to $0.8538 in late September, underscores heightened selling pressure and market uncertainty. Analysts attribute the decline to a combination of macroeconomic factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s reduced easing expectations, which have triggered broader risk-asset sell-offs across cryptocurrencies.

Historical price data for 2025 reveals a mixed performance for ADA. While August 2025 saw a 22.65% gain, February 2025 recorded a -55.30% loss, reflecting the asset’s susceptibility to market cycles. The recent 10.14% 24-hour slump, driven by concentrated long liquidations, has pushed ADA’s market capitalization below $30.58 billion, temporarily relinquishing its eighth-largest crypto ranking. Despite this, institutional activity remains a counterbalance. Tokyo-based Metaplanet’s $623 million ADA purchase in September, part of its $2.91 billion Bitcoin holdings, signals long-term confidence in the asset.

The liquidation heatmap for ADA, as detailed by gate.com, highlights red zones indicating short-position liquidations, which are often precursors to price rebounds. A spike in short liquidations—accounting for $1,600 of the $118,640 total in a one-hour span—suggests potential for a short squeeze. However, the asset’s failure to stabilize above $1, despite technical upgrades like the Hydra layer-2 scaling solution and $96 million in treasury funding for infrastructure, has raised concerns about its scalability and adoption progress.

Market analysts remain divided on ADA’s near-term trajectory. Bullish perspectives hinge on the resolution of governance milestones, such as the transition to fully elected Constitutional Committee members, which strengthens community-driven decision-making. Conversely, bearish indicators include the formation of a rising wedge pattern on Bitcoin’s weekly chart—a potential precursor to a prolonged downturn that could drag altcoins like ADA lower. Ted Pillows, a crypto analyst, warns that Bitcoin’s $106,000–$108,000 support zone, if breached, could trigger further selling pressure before any meaningful recovery.

Institutional sentiment appears to diverge from retail behavior. While individual traders face margin calls, firms like Metaplanet continue accumulating ADA, reflecting a belief in its long-term utility. This dichotomy underscores the broader market’s polarization between speculative trading and strategic investment. The upcoming activation of Cardano’s privacy-focused Midnight sidechain in November 2025 could also attract new liquidity, though regulatory scrutiny of privacy features remains a risk.

Source: [1] Cardano (ADA) Liquidations (https://coinalyze.net/cardano/liquidations/)

[2] Cardano (ADA) Price in US Dollar (USD) History for 2025 (https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/crypto-currencies/cardano-to-us-dollar-history-ada-usd-2025)

[3] Real-Time Cardano (ADA) Liquidation Data - gate.com (https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data/funds/liquidation/ada)

[4] Latest Cardano (ADA) News Update - CoinMarketCap (https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/cardano/latest-updates/)

[5] Crypto Market Liquidation Shoots $1.7B amid Bitcoin and Altcoins Crash (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/76d89-crypto-liquidations-surge-1-7b-altcoin-plunge)

[6] $1.7 billion in liquidations sweep crypto markets over past day as ... (https://www.coinglass.com/id/news/700444)

[7] Bitcoin Selloff Triggers $1.70B in Liquidations (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/09/22/bitcoin-selloff-triggers-1-70b-in-liquidations/)

[8] $70B Bloodbath Rocks Crypto Market; Here’s the Best Buy Right … (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/09/25/70b-bloodbath-rocks-crypto-market-heres-the-best-buy-right-now/)

[9] Crypto crash: Why are Bitcoin and altcoins like … (https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/22/crypto-crash-why-are-bitcoin-and-altcoins-like-ethereum-xrp-cardano-hype-going-down/)

[10] Cardano Faces Shocking 7,315% Liquidation Ratio Imbalance… (http://www.eblockmedia.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=26381)

[11] Analyzing the $1.2B Crypto Liquidation: XRP, DOGE, and ADA (https://blocknews.com/analyzing-the-1-2b-crypto-liquidation-xrp-doge-and-ada/)