ADA Holds Key Support Amid $5.95M Inflows, Eyes 14% Rally Potential

ADA has recently dropped 12% but held a key support level, maintaining 79.96% of positions as long and seeing $5.95 million in inflows over the past 24 hours, signaling ongoing interest in a potential reversal [1]. This has led traders to debate whether the move represents a buying opportunity or a warning of further declines, especially given the broader market’s ongoing correction.

Technical analysis highlights the importance of the ascending trendline since early August 2025, which ADA has repeatedly respected [1]. On the four-hour chart, the coin has once again tested this critical support. If it holds above this trendline, a reversal could push ADA up by 14% toward the next resistance level at $0.9791. A stronger breakout past $1.00 could potentially see it rise another 20% to $1.20 [1].

However, the risk remains. The Supertrend indicator has turned red and is currently above the price, suggesting a downtrend with strong selling pressure [1]. Additionally, the RSI stands at 39.97, near oversold territory, which may hint at an impending reversal but does not guarantee one [1]. At the same time, the inflow of $5.95 million into exchanges raises concerns about dumping or profit-taking, which could intensify downward momentum [1].

Despite these risks, the bullish sentiment is strong. The long/short ratio on Binance for ADAUSDT stands at 3.99, meaning long positions outnumber short ones nearly four to one [1]. This suggests traders are optimistic about a rebound, though it also raises questions about whether this optimism is justified or if the market may be overextended.

The Cardano Fear and Greed Index, which uses 10 unique data algorithms, is being closely watched for insights into investor sentiment [2]. This tool is considered one of the more advanced indicators for gauging market psychology and may help identify potential turning points in ADA’s price action.

Historically, ADA has shown volatility in the past week, with a 7.8% spike on August 14 and a weekly range between Rs289.49 and Rs266.83 in Sri Lankan Rupees [3]. Over the past month, ADA has declined by -0.20% against LKR, slightly outperforming the broader crypto market, which has seen a -0.80% drop [3].

Analysts note that while the broader crypto market remains under pressure—with Bitcoin and Ethereum both testing key supports—Cardano has shown resilience by holding above $0.95 and maintaining its long positions [8]. Although regulatory developments in the United States, including new crypto oversight laws in Illinois, continue to create market uncertainty, these have not yet directly affected ADA’s price movement [5].

Looking ahead, a breakout from the current consolidation phase—supported by on-chain metrics and whale activity—could fuel a 14% rally if the key support level holds [1]. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the ascending trendline and monitoring inflow trends to assess the likelihood of a sustained rebound [1].

Sources:

[1] AMBCrypto - https://ambcrypto.com/cardano-analyzing-how-this-level-could-fuel-a-14-ada-rally/

[2] CFGI.io - https://cfgi.io/cardano-fear-greed-index/

[3] CoinGecko - https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/cardano/lkr

[5] FastBull - https://m.fastbull.com/news-detail/illinois-governor-signs-new-crypto-oversight-laws-targeting-news_6100_0_2025_3_8408_3/6100_ADA-USDT

[8] Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/manuel.guevarra.369210/posts/robinhood-lists-sui-for-us-customers-amid-price-downtrendthe-robinhood-sui-listi/749842574595620/