Active Betting on Iran Regime Change on Polymarket

Protests in Iran have escalated significantly, with demonstrators calling for regime change and economic reforms. The Iranian government has responded by cutting off internet access and international phone lines, limiting communication with the outside world.

The protests began over economic grievances but have now evolved into broader calls for political change. Public sentiment appears to be shifting, with slogans supporting the monarchy and criticizing the current theocratic regime.

Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, reflect active betting on Iran's political future. Traders are wagering on outcomes such as the removal of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with odds reflecting the current state of unrest and international involvement.

Why Did This Happen?

The protests were initially sparked by economic concerns, particularly the depreciation of the Iranian rial and high inflation. These conditions have worsened since the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025, which further destabilized the country's economy.

The exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, has also played a role in mobilizing public anger. His calls for demonstrations have led to mass protests, despite government efforts to suppress them.

How Did Markets React?

The betting activity on Polymarket highlights a growing interest in Iran's political future. One trader won $400,000 on a bet related to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is a known ally of Iran. This has raised questions about the transparency of betting platforms and potential insider trading.

Traders on Polymarket are currently offering a 36% chance that Ali Khamenei will be removed as Iran's supreme leader by June 30, 2026. This reflects a shift in public and investor sentiment toward the possibility of regime change.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring how the Iranian government will respond to continued protests. The crackdown on dissent has already resulted in at least 42 deaths and over 2,270 detentions.

International actors, including U.S. President Donald Trump, have issued warnings that if the regime violently suppresses the protests, the U.S. will intervene. This has emboldened protesters and raised the stakes for the regime.

Investors are also watching how these events could impact global energy markets and geopolitical stability. A potential shift in Iran's leadership could have far-reaching implications for regional and global markets.