AC Milan Fan Token/Tether Market Overview

• Price drifted lower with a bearish bias amid subdued momentum
• RSI near oversold territory but lacked volume confirmation
• Key support at 0.873 tested multiple times during the session
• MACD flattened, suggesting potential short-term reversal
• Volatility compressed, with Bollinger Bands tightening ahead of potential breakout

AC Milan Fan Token/Tether (ACMUSDT) opened at 0.877 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at 0.875 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The token traded within a tight range of 0.871–0.883, with a total volume of 391,996.0 and notional turnover of $339,703.7 over the 24-hour period. The price drifted lower through the session, showing a lack of conviction in buyers.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed several key levels of support and resistance. The most notable support level was 0.873, where the price found repeated buying interest. A small bearish engulfing pattern formed around 20:00–20:15 ET, followed by a long-legged doji near 03:30–03:45 ET, hinting at potential indecision. Resistance levels at 0.88 and 0.879 were tested multiple times but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both above the current price, suggesting a bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a minor resistance, with the price failing to break above it multiple times. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat at 0.877, while the 200-period MA was slightly higher at 0.879, indicating a neutral to mildly bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram flattened and crossed into negative territory, signaling a weakening of bullish momentum. RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, but failed to generate significant volume, suggesting a potential false signal. The divergence between RSI and price action hinted at a potential short-term reversal, though it lacked a clear catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted significantly in the latter half of the session, indicating a period of low volatility. The price hovered near the lower band for much of the night, suggesting a high likelihood of a breakout in either direction. A breakout above 0.88 could test 0.883, while a breakdown below 0.873 could target 0.87.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively low throughout the session, with the largest 15-minute candle occurring at 16:45–17:00 ET with $28,154.3 in notional turnover. However, the price failed to follow through on that volume, suggesting lack of conviction. The final candle before the close at 04:00–04:15 ET saw increased turnover but still failed to push the price higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.877 before retreating. A breakdown below 0.873 would bring the 50% level at 0.874 into focus. On the daily chart, the most recent high of 0.883 and low of 0.871 define a 38.2% retracement level at 0.877, which could serve as a key psychological barrier.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the low volatility and consolidation observed on the 15-minute chart, a mean-reversion strategy based on Bollinger Bands and RSI divergence appears viable. A potential setup would be to go long on a retest of the lower band with RSI above 30 or to short on a break above the upper band with RSI below 70. Stop-loss levels could be placed at 0.871 for longs and 0.884 for shorts. This strategy would benefit from a breakout but requires confirmation from volume and price action to avoid false signals.