Abu Dhabi's 10.3% Surge in Certificates of Origin: A Tipping Point in Diversification and Non-Oil Exports

Abu Dhabi's 10.3% year-on-year increase in Certificates of Origin (COOs) between June 2024 and June 2025 is not just a statistical blip—it's a seismic shift in the UAE's economic trajectory. This surge, driven by a 64% jump in non-oil exports to AED 78.5 billion in H1 2025, signals a structural pivot away from hydrocarbon dependency toward a trade- and manufacturing-driven economy. For global investors, this represents a rare window to capitalize on a post-oil era that is already accelerating.

The Structural Shift: From Oil to Trade-Enabled Growth

Abu Dhabi's economic diversification strategy has long been a work in progress, but the 2025 data reveals a tipping point. The COO surge reflects a 34.7% year-on-year increase in non-oil foreign trade, with re-exports and imports also rising sharply. This growth is underpinned by three pillars: infrastructure modernization, trade policy reform, and SME empowerment.

1. Infrastructure as a Catalyst
   The AD Ports Group, a linchpin of Abu Dhabi's logistics network, reported a 15% revenue increase in Q2 2025, driven by Khalifa Port's 17% rise in container throughput. With an EBITDA margin of 24.2% and declining capital expenditure intensity, the group is transitioning from a construction phase to a cash-generative asset. Investors should note its role in facilitating 80% utilization at the CMA Terminal, a critical node for global supply chains.

2. Trade Policy and COO Dynamics
   The UAE's 28 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) now provide preferential access to markets like India, Indonesia, and Turkey. By streamlining COO issuance, Abu Dhabi enables SMEs in chemicals, metals, and engineering to access these markets at lower tariffs. This is not just about paperwork—it's about creating a competitive edge for local manufacturers.

3. SMEs as the New Export Powerhouse
   Small and medium enterprises now account for a growing share of non-oil exports, supported by digital platforms and training programs from the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce. These firms are leveraging COOs to scale into global markets, a trend that mirrors the rise of China's SME-driven export boom in the 2000s.

Strategic Advantages for Investors

Abu Dhabi's economic strategy is a masterclass in long-term planning. The Abu Dhabi Industrial Strategy (ADIS) aims to boost manufacturing GDP to AED 172 billion by 2031, with targeted investments in hydrogen, AI, and green manufacturing. For investors, this creates opportunities in three key areas:

1. Infrastructure Operators
   Companies like Q Mobility, operator of the Darb toll system, are benefiting from smart infrastructure reforms. The removal of monthly toll payment caps and extended operational hours are generating steady revenue streams while easing supply chain bottlenecks.

2. High-Value Manufacturing
   The ADQ portfolio, valued at AED 251 billion, is funding projects like the Stargate AI supercomputing cluster and the SAVI (Smart and Autonomous Vehicle Industry) cluster in Masdar City. These initiatives align with global trends in decarbonization and automation, offering exposure to sectors with multi-decade growth potential.

3. Trade-Enabling Services
   Platforms that digitize export processes, such as virtual licensing systems and COO facilitation tools, are thriving. These services reduce compliance costs for SMEs, enabling them to compete in international markets.

Risks and the Road Ahead

While the momentum is undeniable, investors must remain cautious. Global trade growth is projected at just 1.75% for 2025, meaning Abu Dhabi's 34.7% surge is exceptional but not guaranteed to continue. However, the emirate's strategic alignment with global supply chain shifts—such as nearshoring and green manufacturing—positions it as a beneficiary of broader macroeconomic trends.

Investment Thesis: Time to Act

For capital seeking high-growth, low-volatility opportunities, Abu Dhabi's post-oil economy offers a compelling case. Prioritize:
- Infrastructure operators with recurring revenue models (e.g., AD Ports Group).
- SME-focused platforms that digitize trade processes.
- Advanced manufacturing firms aligned with ADIS (e.g., AI and hydrogen projects).

The 10.3% COO surge is not an isolated event—it's a harbinger of a new economic era. As Abu Dhabi's industrial base matures and its trade networks expand, the window to invest in its transformation is narrowing. For those who act now, the rewards could be as transformative as the emirate itself.