Abivax Soars on Eli Lilly Takeover Whispers: A 5.8% Surge Amid Biotech Hype

Summary
• Abivax (ABVX) surges 5.8% intraday to $130.215, hitting a 52-week high of $138.49
• Market rumors link the French biotech to a potential Eli Lilly (LLY) acquisition, sparking 20%+ gains in Paris
• Positive Phase 3 trial results for obefazimod in ulcerative colitis drive speculative fervor
• Turnover jumps to 2.58M shares, with RSI at 58.6 and MACD signaling bullish momentum

Abivax’s stock is in a tailwind as takeover speculation and drug trial optimism collide. The biotech’s shares have surged nearly 1,800% year-to-date, fueled by a $400M ADR offering and a 52-week high of $138.49. With Eli Lilly’s rumored interest and a Phase 3 win for obefazimod, the stock’s volatility and technical indicators suggest a high-stakes trade for momentum players.

Eli Lilly Speculation Ignites Biotech Rally
Abivax’s 5.8% intraday surge is driven by dual catalysts: rumors of a potential Eli Lilly acquisition and positive Phase 3 trial results for obefazimod. Reuters and Bloomberg reports highlight market speculation that LLY, a leader in weight-loss drugs, may pursue a takeover of ABVX. Analysts at Stifel note the stock’s movement is 'speculative' but aligns with the company’s recent $400M ADR filing and ulcerative colitis drug progress. The stock’s 18-fold YTD gain and 8B euro valuation underscore investor appetite for high-risk, high-reward biotech plays.

Biotech Sector Mixed as AMGN Trails ABVX's Volatility
While Abivax’s 5.8% gain dominates headlines, the broader biotech sector remains fragmented. Amgen (AMGN), the sector’s leader, rose 0.87% intraday, reflecting steady but unremarkable performance. ABVX’s volatility contrasts with AMGN’s stability, highlighting the speculative nature of small-cap biotech plays. The CAC 40’s 8.7% YTD gain pales against ABVX’s 1,753% surge, illustrating the stock’s decoupling from broader market trends.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Protective Puts for ABVX Volatility
• Technical Indicators: 200-day MA: $47.77 (far below), RSI: 58.6 (neutral), MACD: 4.32 (bullish), Bollinger Bands: $100.89–$131.07 (current price near upper band)
• Key Levels: Support at $129.24 (intraday low), resistance at $138.49 (52W high). A break above $138.49 could trigger a retest of $140, the analyst price target.
• Options Focus: High-IV and leverage ratios favor short-term plays. Aggressive bulls should target the ABVX20251219C130 call (strike $130, IV 163.81%, leverage 8.89%) and the ABVX20251219P130 put (strike $130, IV 168.36%, leverage 9.51%).
• ABVX20251219C130: Delta 0.569 (moderate sensitivity), theta -0.949 (rapid time decay), gamma 0.011 (price sensitivity). With 16.96% price change and $246K turnover, this call offers high leverage for a 5% upside (target $136.72).
• ABVX20251219P130: Delta -0.430 (moderate downside protection), theta -0.425 (slower decay), gamma 0.011 (volatility buffer). At -35.81% price change and $388K turnover, this put insures against a pullback to $125–$129.
• Payoff Estimation: A 5% upside (to $136.72) yields $6.72 per call, while a 5% downside (to $123.45) caps losses at $6.55 per put. These contracts balance risk and reward in ABVX’s volatile environment.
• Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ABVX20251219C130 into a breakout above $138.49. Conservative traders should pair the call with the put for a collar strategy.

Backtest Abivax Stock Performance
The backtest of ABVX's performance following a 6% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 57.47%, the 10-Day win rate at 57.85%, and the 30-Day win rate at 63.98%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 25.27% over 59 days, suggesting that ABVX can capitalize on intraday movements to generate positive returns.

ABVX at Inflection Point: Watch for $138.49 Breakout or LLY Confirmation
Abivax’s 5.8% surge hinges on two catalysts: Eli Lilly’s rumored interest and obefazimod’s Phase 3 success. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a high-stakes trade, with $138.49 as the critical resistance. A breakout could validate the $140 analyst target, while a pullback to $125–$129 would test short-term momentum. Sector leader Amgen’s 0.87% gain highlights ABVX’s decoupling from broader biotech trends. Investors should monitor LLY’s comments and ABVX’s Q2 2026 Crohn’s disease data. For now, the ABVX20251219C130 call offers a high-leverage play on a potential takeover-driven rally.