Abivax Soars 9.7% on Eli Lilly Takeover Whispers and Drug Trial Triumphs

Summary
• Abivax (ABVX) surges 9.68% intraday to $134.955, hitting 52-week high of $137.00
• Market capitalization jumps to €8B ($9.3B), up from €500M in January 2025
• Reuters reports Eli Lilly (LLY) takeover speculation and positive Phase 3 ulcerative colitis trial results for obefazimod drive frenzy

Abivax’s shares have erupted on speculation of a potential Eli Lilly acquisition and groundbreaking clinical data for its lead drug. The stock’s 9.7% surge reflects a perfect storm of biotech hype and institutional betting, with volume surging 2.2% of float. Traders are now parsing technicals and options to capitalize on the momentum.

Eli Lilly Takeover Speculation and Phase 3 Trial Success Ignite ABVX Surge
Reuters and industry analysts attribute Abivax’s 9.7% intraday rally to dual catalysts: persistent rumors of a potential Eli Lilly bid and July’s Phase 3 trial success for obefazimod in ulcerative colitis. The latter event alone drove a 500% single-day surge in Paris-listed shares earlier this year. Stifel analyst Damien Choplain confirmed the takeover narrative, while the drug’s Phase 3 data—positioning it as a potential blockbuster in inflammatory bowel disease—has cemented investor optimism. With $400M in ADR fundraising plans and a 18-fold YTD rally, Abivax’s valuation now hinges on regulatory outcomes and M&A activity.

High-Leverage Call Options and ETFs Target ABVX’s Volatility-Driven Rally
• 200-day average: $47.77 (far below current price) • RSI: 58.57 (neutral to overbought) • MACD: 4.32 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: 131.07 (upper) vs. 100.89 (lower) • Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend

Abivax’s technicals scream momentum. The stock has pierced its 52-week high of $137.00 and sits 9.7% above the 200-day average, with RSI creeping into overbought territory. The MACD histogram (-1.06) suggests fading momentum, but the bullish Kline pattern and Bollinger Band compression indicate continuation potential. Traders should watch the $131.11 intraday low as a critical support level; a break below triggers a retest of the $115.98 mid-band. No leveraged ETF data is available, but the stock’s 834.79 volatility score demands aggressive options strategies.

Top Option 1: ABVX20260515C155
• Code: ABVX20260515C155 • Type: Call • Strike: $155 • Expiry: 2026-05-15 • IV: 31.62% (moderate) • Leverage: 26.43% • Delta: 0.314 • Theta: -0.0415 • Gamma: 0.0127 • Turnover: 0
IV (implied volatility): 31.62% (moderate for biotech) • Leverage: 26.43% (high) • Delta: 0.314 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.0415 (moderate time decay) • Gamma: 0.0127 (moderate price sensitivity) • Turnover: 0 (liquidity risk). This call option offers 26.43% leverage with a 31.62% IV, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $141.70). A 5% move would yield a payoff of $6.75 per contract, assuming a $141.70 price. The moderate delta and gamma balance risk and reward.

Top Option 2: None Available
• The provided options chain contains only one contract. Traders should consider ABVX20260515C155 as the primary vehicle for bullish exposure. Aggressive bulls may scale into this call ahead of the $137.00 52-week high, with a stop-loss below $131.11.

Backtest Abivax Stock Performance
The backtest of ABVX's performance following a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals significant gains. The strategy achieved an overall return of 486.84%, vastly outperforming the benchmark return of 62.99%. The excess return attributed to the strategy is 423.84%, indicating that the 10% intraday surge was a key driver of the overall performance. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 131.22%, which is a robust indicator of the strategy's ability to generate consistent returns over time.

ABVX’s 9.7% Surge: A High-Volatility Play on Biotech Hype and M&A Frenzy
Abivax’s 9.7% rally is a textbook case of speculative biotech trading, driven by takeover rumors and clinical milestones. The stock’s 18-fold YTD surge and $9.3B valuation hinge on obefazimod’s regulatory path and M&A activity. Traders should monitor the $137.00 52-week high as a critical resistance level; a break above triggers a retest of the $155 strike price. Meanwhile, Amgen (AMGN) remains the sector leader, up 0.39% today, but Abivax’s volatility dwarfs its peers. For those with a high-risk appetite, ABVX20260515C155 offers a 26.43% leveraged bet on a 5% upside. Watch for a $131.11 breakdown or regulatory updates on obefazimod—either could trigger a reversal.