Abivax Soars 4.9% on M&A Frenzy: A Biotech Cinderella Story Unfolds

Summary
• Abivax (ABVX) surges 4.9% to $120.00 amid explosive takeover speculation
• Intraday high hits $129.64 as Eli Lilly rumored to offer €15B for French biotech
• Options frenzy erupts with 2026-01-16 contracts trading at 100%+ implied volatility
• Dynamic PE of -23.49 signals speculative frenzy as sector peers watch closely

Abivax’s meteoric 4.9% rally on January 12, 2026, has transformed the French biotech into a takeover darling. With a $129.64 intraday high and $118.5 low, the stock’s 11% range reflects the volatile dance between M&A optimism and regulatory uncertainty. As Eli Lilly’s €15B offer looms, the market is pricing in a potential 130%+ upside, with options volatility spiking to 122% on the 120-strike call. This is no ordinary biotech play—it’s a high-stakes poker game with the French Finance Ministry holding the final card.

Eli Lilly’s €15B Bid Ignites Biotech M&A Frenzy
Abivax’s 4.9% surge stems from a French media report claiming Eli Lilly is prepared to pay €15 billion for the company, nearly double its current market cap. While no formal offer exists, the rumor has triggered a speculative stampede. Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Justine Telliez estimates a potential deal could clear €150–250 per share, far above the current $120.00 price. The stock’s 129.64 intraday high aligns with Kepler’s standalone target of €130, suggesting the market is already pricing in a control premium. CEO Marc de Garidel’s comments at JPMorgan Healthcare Conference—emphasizing obefazimod’s potential in ulcerative colitis—have further stoked investor fervor, with analysts noting the drug’s phase III data could attract a premium in a competitive bidding environment.

Options Volatility and Gamma Playbook: ABVX20260116C115 & ABVX20260116P115 Lead the Charge
• 200-day MA: $60.35 (far below) | RSI: 50.51 (neutral) | MACD: 1.05 (bullish) | Bollinger Bands: $103.56–$150.21
• K-line pattern: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish divergence signals potential reversal
• Turnover rate: 5.57% (healthy liquidity) | 52W range: $4.77–$148.83 (volatility buffer)

Abivax’s options chain is a goldmine for volatility traders. The 2026-01-16 115-strike call (ABVX20260116C115) and 115-strike put (ABVX20260116P115) stand out with 91.95% and 103.84% implied volatility, respectively. The call’s 0.676 delta and 0.0278 gamma suggest it’s primed to accelerate if the stock breaks above $115, while the put’s -0.338 delta and 0.0250 gamma offer downside protection if the French Finance Ministry intervenes. With $198,969 turnover on the call and $48,002 on the put, liquidity is robust. A 5% upside to $126 would yield a 16.46% return on the call, while a 5% downside to $114 would see the put gain 56.25%—a classic straddle setup for a binary event-driven trade.

Backtest Abivax Stock Performance
The backtest of ABVX's performance after a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 56.51%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.25%, and the 30-Day win rate is 63.57%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 26.00%, with a maximum return day at 59.

All Eyes on Paris: ABVX’s M&A Clock is Ticking
Abivax’s 4.9% rally is a high-stakes gamble on regulatory approval and competitive bidding. With Eli Lilly’s €15B offer pending French government review and Kepler Cheuvreux projecting a €150–250/share range, the stock’s 129.64 intraday high suggests the market is already pricing in a 130%+ upside. However, the 122.27% implied volatility on the 120-strike call warns of a volatile near-term path. Investors should monitor the 115-strike options for liquidity and gamma exposure, while keeping a close eye on the French Finance Ministry’s decision. As sector leader Amgen (AMGN) dips -0.29%, Abivax’s M&A-driven rally could outperform the broader biotech sector—if the regulatory hurdles clear. Act now: Buy ABVX20260116C115 for upside or ABVX20260116P115 for downside protection as the clock ticks toward January 16.