Abivax Soars 10.78% on Eli Lilly Takeover Whispers: Is This the Start of a Biotech Breakout?

Summary
• Abivax (ABVX) surges 10.78% intraday to $136.305, hitting its 52-week high of $138.49
• Market rumors of a potential Eli Lilly (LLY) acquisition drive speculative frenzy
• Company’s ulcerative colitis drug obefazimod shows Phase 3 success, fueling investor optimism
• Turnover jumps to 2.16M shares, signaling heightened institutional and retail interest

Abivax’s stock is in a tailwind as takeover speculation collides with groundbreaking drug data. The French biotech’s shares have surged nearly 18-fold year-to-date, driven by a mix of strategic rumors and clinical milestones. With Eli Lilly’s rumored interest amplifying the narrative, traders are scrambling to position for a potential blockbuster event.

Eli Lilly Acquisition Rumors Ignite Abivax's Meteoric Rise
The explosive 10.78% intraday rally in Abivax’s stock is directly tied to unconfirmed reports of Eli Lilly’s interest in acquiring the company. Analysts at Stifel note that the move is 'speculation around a possible takeover,' with no official comments from either firm. This narrative has been amplified by Abivax’s recent Phase 3 success for obefazimod, which treats ulcerative colitis, and its $400M ADR offering. The stock’s 18-fold surge since January underscores the market’s willingness to price in high-risk, high-reward scenarios, particularly in biotech where M&A activity remains a key catalyst.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Biotech Breakout
• MACD: 4.32 (bullish divergence from signal line 5.38)
• RSI: 58.57 (neutral, avoiding overbought/oversold extremes)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $136.305, above upper band of $131.07 (short-term overextension)
• 200-day MA: $47.77 (far below current price, long-term bullish)

Abivax’s technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish momentum, with key resistance at $138.49 (52-week high) and support at $131.11 (intraday low). The RSI’s neutral reading and MACD’s positive divergence indicate the stock may consolidate before resuming its upward trajectory. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA as a critical long-term benchmark.

Top Options Picks:
1. ABVX20251219P130 (Put Option)
• Strike Price: $130
• Expiration: 2025-12-19
• IV: 162.92% (extreme volatility)
• Delta: -0.396 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
• Theta: -0.4257 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0106 (modest sensitivity to gamma)
• Turnover: $380,845 (high liquidity)
• Leverage Ratio: 11.20% (moderate leverage)
• Payoff at 5% Upside: $136.305 → $143.12, max profit = $143.12 - $130 = $13.12 per share
• Why It Stands Out: High IV and turnover make this put ideal for volatility traders betting on a pullback before the December 19 expiration. The negative delta offers downside protection if rumors fade.

2. ABVX20260515C155 (Call Option)
• Strike Price: $155
• Expiration: 2026-05-15
• IV: 31.97% (moderate volatility)
• Delta: 0.3126 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
• Theta: -0.0416 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0126 (modest sensitivity to gamma)
• Turnover: $0 (low liquidity)
• Leverage Ratio: 26.36% (high leverage)
• Payoff at 5% Upside: $136.305 → $143.12, max profit = $143.12 - $155 = -$11.88 (out of the money)
• Why It Stands Out: While the May 2026 call offers high leverage, its low turnover and out-of-the-money status make it a speculative long-term bet. Only suitable for investors with a 6-month+ time horizon and high risk tolerance.

Trading Opinion: Aggressive bulls should prioritize the ABVX20251219P130 put for short-term volatility plays, while long-term holders may consider the ABVX20260515C155 call if the stock breaks above $138.49. Watch for a pullback to $131.11 before re-entering long positions.

Backtest Abivax Stock Performance
The backtest of ABVX's performance following a 11% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 57.75%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.75%, and the 30-Day win rate is 63.95%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 24.95% over 59 days, suggesting that ABVX can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

Abivax at a Crossroads: Takeover Frenzy or Clinical Reality?
Abivax’s 10.78% surge is a high-stakes gamble between takeover speculation and clinical validation. While the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, the absence of official comments from Eli Lilly introduces significant uncertainty. Investors should monitor the $138.49 52-week high as a critical resistance level and the $131.11 intraday low as a potential support zone. For context, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) is up 0.75% today, indicating broader biotech resilience. If Abivax’s rally proves sustainable, it could signal a shift in M&A dynamics for biotech innovators. Action Step: Watch for a breakdown below $131.11 or a confirmed Eli Lilly acquisition to dictate next moves.