Abivax Shares Surge 9.41% on €0.27B Volume Rank 415th as Phase 3 Trial Data and Euronext 150 Inclusion Drive Momentum

Market Snapshot

Abivax (ABVX) surged 9.41% on November 14, 2025, with a trading volume of €0.27 billion, marking a 262.26% increase from the previous day. This performance placed the stock at rank 415 in terms of trading activity for the day, reflecting heightened investor interest. The stock has experienced robust momentum, with a 90-day share price return of 49% and year-to-date gains exceeding 1,100%. Over the past year, total shareholder returns have reached 852%, driven by clinical milestones and inclusion in the Euronext 150 Index.

Key Drivers

The recent surge in Abivax’s stock price is primarily attributed to the release of patient-reported outcomes from its Phase 3 trial for obefazimod in adults with ulcerative colitis. These findings provide qualitative insights into how patients experience the drug’s effects beyond traditional clinical endpoints, enhancing the drug’s perceived therapeutic value. The data, disclosed on November 14, reinforced investor confidence in the drug’s potential to address unmet medical needs, a critical factor for biotech investors prioritizing innovation.

The company’s inclusion in the Euronext 150 Index further amplified market attention. This listing typically increases liquidity and visibility, attracting institutional investors seeking diversified exposure to European equities. The combination of clinical progress and index inclusion created a dual tailwind, as evidenced by the stock’s exceptional performance metrics. The 90-day return of 49% and year-to-date gains exceeding 1,100% underscore the market’s enthusiasm for Abivax’s pipeline, particularly its focus on autoimmune and antiviral therapies.

However, the valuation dynamics present a nuanced picture. A DCF analysis by Simply Wall St estimates a fair value of €11.34 per share, significantly below the recent closing price of €89.40. This discrepancy highlights the market’s willingness to discount future cash flows based on optimistic growth assumptions, despite the company’s ongoing losses. The DCF model factors in Abivax’s projected revenue growth and clinical development timelines but emphasizes that much of the drug’s potential is already priced in. Investors must weigh this overvaluation against the risks of clinical setbacks or regulatory delays, which could swiftly erode sentiment in a high-volatility biotech sector.

The patient-reported outcomes from the Phase 3 trial also address a key gap in clinical data, offering a more comprehensive view of obefazimod’s efficacy. While traditional endpoints like remission rates remain critical, patient-reported metrics such as quality of life and symptom severity provide additional validation for payers and healthcare providers. This dual-layer of evidence strengthens the drug’s commercialization prospects, particularly in markets prioritizing patient-centric outcomes. Analysts note that such data can accelerate regulatory approvals and differentiate Abivax’s product in a competitive landscape.

Despite the bullish momentum, the DCF valuation’s stark divergence from the current price serves as a cautionary signal. The model’s assumptions rely on projected cash flows from obefazimod’s commercialization, which hinges on successful regulatory submissions and market access negotiations. Any delays in these processes, or unfavorable pricing decisions, could disrupt the revenue timeline and reduce the drug’s long-term value. Additionally, the biotech sector’s inherent volatility means that even positive developments may be short-lived if broader market conditions shift.

In summary, Abivax’s stock performance reflects a blend of clinical progress, index inclusion, and speculative enthusiasm. While the patient-reported trial data and Euronext 150 listing provide near-term catalysts, the valuation gap highlighted by the DCF model underscores the need for careful risk assessment. Investors appear to have priced in a significant portion of the drug’s potential, leaving limited room for further upside unless new data or regulatory milestones emerge. The coming months will be critical in validating these expectations, particularly as Abivax navigates the next phase of its clinical and commercialization strategy.