Abivax Plunges 11% on Massive Share Sale Filing as Analysts Raise Price Targets to $150

Summary
• Abivax (ABVX) drops 11.25% to $112.25, hitting an intraday low of $108.95
• Sofinnova files Rule 144 for 1M shares via Leerink Partners on 1/8/2026
• BTIG raises price target to $150, joining 10 analysts with an average $136.17 target
• Biotech sector mixed: AMGN down 3.45%, but ABVX’s sell-off outpaces sector

Abivax’s sharp intraday decline has ignited a firestorm of speculation, with the stock trading at its lowest level since 2020. The move follows a massive Rule 144 filing by major shareholder Sofinnova, triggering immediate selling pressure. Meanwhile, analysts remain bullish, with BTIG’s $150 price target and a sector average of $136.17 suggesting a potential rebound. The stock’s 52-week range of $4.77–$148.83 underscores its volatility, but today’s 11.25% drop has created a critical inflection point for traders.

Sofinnova’s $133.7M Share Sale Sparks Liquidity Crisis
The immediate catalyst for Abivax’s 11.25% drop is the Rule 144 filing by Sofinnova Crossover I SLP, which plans to sell 1 million ADS through Leerink Partners on January 8, 2026. This follows prior sales of 590,877 and 609,123 shares in late October 2025, totaling $112.9 million in gross proceeds. The filing’s $133.7 million aggregate market value—equivalent to 1.7% of ABVX’s $7.78 billion market cap—has triggered a liquidity crunch. Short-term traders are fleeing as the increased supply overwhelms demand, while the stock’s -21.97 P/E ratio highlights its speculative nature. The sell-off is exacerbated by the fact that Sofinnova’s shares were acquired in 2019 at a fraction of current prices, suggesting a profit-taking motive.

Biotech Sector Mixed as AMGN Drags, Analysts Stay Bullish on ABVX
The broader biotech sector is mixed, with Amgen (AMGN) down 3.45% on concerns over its hypertension drug baxdrostat’s PDUFA date. However, ABVX’s sell-off is largely decoupled from sector trends. While 10 analysts maintain an average $136.17 price target (7.66% upside from $126.48), the immediate pressure from Sofinnova’s sale has created a short-term divergence. The sector’s recent focus on gene therapies and immuno-oncology—highlighted in Fierce Biotech’s coverage of Novartis and GSK—has not yet translated into ABVX’s fundamentals, which remain tied to its Phase 3 ulcerative colitis drug obefazimod.

Options Playbook: ABVX20260116P110 and ABVX20260116C115 for Volatility-Driven Gains
• MACD: 3.53 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 5.18, Histogram: -1.65 (bearish crossover)
• RSI: 61.24 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $105.95–$149.89 (oversold lower band)
• 200D MA: $59.27 (far below current price), 30D MA: $124.96 (near support)

Abivax’s technicals suggest a volatile but potentially range-bound near-term outlook. The stock is testing its 30D support at $110.64–$111.33, with the 200D MA ($59.27) acting as a distant floor. Two options stand out for their liquidity and leverage:

• ABVX20260116P110 (Put):
- Strike: $110, IV: 120.39%, Leverage: 16.12%, Delta: -0.4076, Theta: -0.2156, Gamma: 0.0182, Turnover: 422,811
- IV (high volatility), Leverage (amplifies downside), Gamma (sensitive to price swings). This put benefits from a 5% downside scenario (to $106.89), yielding a $3.11 payoff per contract. Ideal for short-term bearish bets.

• ABVX20260116C115 (Call):
- Strike: $115, IV: 119.23%, Leverage: 15.04%, Delta: 0.4987, Theta: -0.6930, Gamma: 0.0189, Turnover: 202,328
- IV (high volatility), Delta (moderate directional exposure), Theta (rapid time decay). This call thrives if ABVX rebounds above $115, with a 5% upside (to $117.86) generating a $2.86 payoff. Best for a bounce trade.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ABVX20260116C115 into a rebound above $115, while bears should target ABVX20260116P110 if $105.95 breaks.

Backtest Abivax Stock Performance
The backtest of ABVX's performance after an intraday plunge of -11% from 2022 to now shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 49.63%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.84%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.25%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 19.49%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that ABVX had a strong recovery capacity following the initial drop.

Act Now: ABVX at Pivotal Crossroads as Analysts Battle Share-Sale Pressure
Abivax’s 11.25% drop has created a critical juncture, with Sofinnova’s $133.7M share sale clashing against a $150 price target from BTIG and a 7.66% average analyst upside. The stock’s technicals—trading near its 30D support at $110.64—suggest a potential rebound, but the immediate risk of further selling pressure remains. Sector leader Amgen’s 3.45% decline highlights broader biotech fragility, but ABVX’s unique catalysts demand a tailored approach. Watch for a breakdown below $105.95 or a reversal above $115 to dictate next steps.