Abivax Plunges 12% as Major Shareholder Unloads 1M Shares Amid Analyst Optimism

Summary
• Abivax (ABVX) drops 12.34% to $110.87, its lowest since 2025
• Sofinnova plans to sell 1M shares via Rule 144, adding to October’s 1.2M ADS sales
• BTIG raises price target to $150, maintaining 'Buy' despite sharp decline

Abivax’s dramatic intraday selloff has drawn urgent attention as a major shareholder’s planned stake reduction collides with bullish analyst sentiment. The stock’s 12.34% drop to $110.87—a 14.7% gap from its 52-week high—has triggered volatility halts in Paris and raised questions about short-term liquidity. While Sofinnova’s Rule 144 filing signals immediate selling pressure, BTIG’s $150 price target underscores long-term conviction in the biotech’s pipeline, particularly obefazimod’s Phase 3 ulcerative colitis trials.

Shareholder Dumping Sparks Flight to Safety
The 12.34% intraday plunge in ABVX is directly tied to Sofinnova Crossover I SLP’s Rule 144 filing to sell 1,000,000 ADS at $133.70 million. This follows prior sales of 1.2M ADS in late October, totaling $112.9 million. The filing’s $133.7M aggregate value and 1/8/2026 sale date have triggered a liquidity cascade, with institutional investors accelerating exits ahead of the planned dump. The stock’s 52-week high of $148.83 now appears distant as the 200-day MA at $59.27 and Bollinger Bands’ lower bound at $105.95 converge to form a critical support cluster.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Analyst Bullishness
• 200-day MA: $59.27 (far below) | RSI: 61.24 (neutral) | MACD: 3.53 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $105.95–$149.89 (current price at 76% of range)
• Short-term bearish trend, long-term bullish K-line pattern

With ABVX trading near its 200-day MA and RSI hovering in neutral territory, the technicals suggest a volatile consolidation phase. The 1/16/2026 options chain offers two high-conviction plays: ABVX20260116P110 (put) and ABVX20260116C120 (call).

ABVX20260116P110
• Code: ABVX20260116P110 | Type: Put | Strike: $110 | Expiry: 1/16/2026
• IV: 122.28% (elevated volatility) | Delta: -0.445 | Theta: -0.2027 | Gamma: 0.01858 | Turnover: 418,336
• High IV reflects market anticipation of continued volatility; delta suggests moderate directional bias; strong gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings.
• Payoff projection: At 5% downside to $105.33, intrinsic value = $4.67. With 13.85% leverage, this contract offers 33% return on premium if the stock breaks $110.

ABVX20260116C120
• Code: ABVX20260116C120 | Type: Call | Strike: $120 | Expiry: 1/16/2026
• IV: 150.07% (extreme volatility) | Delta: 0.414 | Theta: -0.745 | Gamma: 0.0149 | Turnover: 417,543
• Sky-high IV and 17.04% leverage ratio make this ideal for a rebound trade. Theta decay (-0.745) suggests urgency to act before expiry.
• Payoff projection: At 5% upside to $116.41, intrinsic value = $6.41. With 17.04% leverage, this contract could yield 53% return if the stock rebounds above $120.

Action Alert: Aggressive bulls should buy ABVX20260116C120 into a bounce above $120. Short-side traders may short ABVX20260116P110 if the stock breaks $110, but monitor Sofinnova’s sales for liquidity risks.

Backtest Abivax Stock Performance
The backtest of ABVX's performance after an intraday plunge of -12% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 49.63%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.84%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.25%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 19.49% over 30 days, suggesting that ABVX has the potential for recovery and even surpassing its pre-plunge levels.

Volatility to Continue: Watch $105.95 Support and Analyst Target
The immediate outlook for ABVX hinges on its ability to hold above the Bollinger Bands’ lower bound at $105.95. A breakdown would trigger a test of the 200-day MA at $59.27, while a rebound above $120 could reignite the 148.83 52-week high narrative. Sofinnova’s 1M-share sale remains a near-term overhang, but BTIG’s $150 target and the biotech’s Phase 3 obefazimod data in Q1 2026 provide a long-term floor. ABBV, the sector leader, fell 3.77% today, highlighting broader biotech fragility. Investors should prioritize ABVX20260116C120 for a rebound trade and ABVX20260116P110 for downside protection. Watch for $105.95 support or a 10% move toward $150.