AbCellera Biologics Soars 13% on Intraday Surge: What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) surges 13.04% to $3.8774, breaking above its 52-week high of $6.515
• Intraday range spans $3.40 to $3.89, with turnover hitting 5.17 million shares
• Sector news highlights William Blair’s 2026 biotech picks and FDA regulatory shifts

AbCellera Biologics has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging over 13% amid a volatile session. The stock’s sharp move coincides with a flurry of biotech sector news, including William Blair’s top 2026 picks and regulatory updates from the FDA. With the stock trading near its 52-week high, investors are scrambling to decipher the catalyst behind this explosive move.

William Blair’s 2026 Biotech Picks Ignite ABCL’s Rally
The surge in AbCellera Biologics appears directly tied to William Blair’s recent publication of its top five biotech stock picks for 2026, which includes three clinical-stage biotechs. While AbCellera is not explicitly named in the list, its position as a clinical-stage player in the biotech sector aligns with the firm’s thematic focus. The timing of the release—on December 23, 2025—suggests a delayed but significant market reaction as investors reassess the stock’s potential in light of the broader sector’s 2026 outlook. Additionally, the FDA’s recent regulatory shifts, including revoked platform designations and stalled approvals, have heightened sector-wide volatility, with AbCellera benefiting from speculative flows into undervalued biotech names.

Options Playbook: Leveraging ABCL’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: 3.7408 (bullish crossover)
• RSI: 40.59 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.126 (bullish divergence as histogram turns positive)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band (3.8159), suggesting overbought conditions

AbCellera’s technicals paint a mixed picture: while the RSI indicates oversold conditions, the MACD’s positive divergence and bullish crossover above the 200-day average suggest momentum. The stock’s current price of $3.8774 sits just above the 200-day MA and within the upper Bollinger Band, signaling potential for a continuation of the rally. Traders should monitor the 3.89 intraday high as a critical resistance level and the 3.40 support level for a potential pullback.

Top Options Picks:
• ABCL20260116C4 (Call, Strike $4, Expiry 1/16):
- IV: 78.39% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.94% (high)
- Delta: 0.4567 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.015676 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.7472 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 7,620 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.19385 (max(0, 3.87741.05 - 4))
- Why: High gamma and leverage make this contract ideal for a short-term bullish breakout.

• ABCL20260220C4 (Call, Strike $4, Expiry 2/20):
- IV: 86.09% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 8.86% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5347 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.006641 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.3334 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 11,977 (highly liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.19385 (same as above)
- Why: Strong liquidity and moderate gamma position this as a safer, mid-term play.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ABCL20260116C4 into a break above $3.89, while ABCL20260220C4 offers a more conservative entry for a sustained rally.

Backtest AbCellera Biologics Stock Performance
The backtest of ABCL's performance after a 13% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 0.49% on day 40, the overall trend was negative, with a 3-day win rate of 44.18%, a 10-day win rate of 45.49%, and a 30-day win rate of 48.57%. The average returns over these periods were slightly negative, with a 3-day return of -0.21%, a 10-day return of -0.20%, and a 30-day return of -0.10%. This suggests that while ABCL had brief periods of positive performance, it largely underperformed following the intraday surge.

ABCL’s 13% Surge: A Catalyst-Driven Play or Fleeting Momentum?
AbCellera Biologics’ 13% intraday surge is a textbook example of speculative momentum driven by sector-wide optimism and thematic positioning. While the stock’s technicals suggest a potential continuation of the rally—supported by a bullish MACD and oversold RSI—the broader biotech sector remains volatile due to regulatory uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor the 3.89 resistance level and the 3.40 support zone. With Amgen (AMGN) up 2.77% as a sector leader, the biotech space remains a high-conviction trade. Act now: Buy ABCL20260116C4 if $3.89 breaks, or hold for a pullback to 3.40 for a low-risk entry.