ABBV's Options Imbalance and Whale Moves: A Bullish Setup for October 17 Expiry?

• ABBV trades at $229.45, up 0.34% with volume at 2.54M shares. • Call open interest dominates (put/call ratio: 0.77), with heavy OI at $232.5 and $245 strikes. • A $705K block trade hit the ABBV20251017C230 call ahead of October expiry.

Here’s the thing: ABBV’s options market is whispering bullishness, but the technicals are mixed. Short-term indicators hint at a pullback, while long-term trends and options positioning scream for a breakout above $230. Let’s break it down.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Calls Climb, Puts Lag

ABBV’s options chain tells a clear story—traders are betting on the upside. This Friday’s expiring calls see the highest open interest at $232.5 (OI: 2,089) and $245 (OI: 1,494), while puts trail with just $220 (OI: 732) as the top. The put/call ratio of 0.77 (calls outweighing puts) isn’t just a number; it’s a crowd of investors hedging or scaling up long positions.

But here’s the twist: The block trade on ABBV20251017C230—6,138 contracts worth $705K—hints at big money positioning for a move above $230 before October 17. That’s not noise. It’s a signal that institutional players see a catalyst (or a floor) in that zone.

The Technical Tightrope: RSI and Bollinger Clues

ABBV’s RSI at 34 is in oversold territory, which usually precedes a rebound. But the MACD histogram (-0.94) is still negative, dragging down momentum. The price is clinging to the middle Bollinger Band ($229.92), with the upper band at $240.94 acting as a distant target.

Here’s what I’m watching: If ABBV holds above the 30-day support of $223, the RSI bounce and call-heavy options flow could fuel a rally toward $240. But a drop below $223 would force a reevaluation—those bullish bets might turn into a race to the exits.

Trading the Setup: Calls, Stock, and Exit Plans

Let’s get tactical. For options, the ABBV20251017C232.5 call (this Friday’s expiry) is the most liquid and aligned with the block trade. Why? High OI means liquidity, and the strike sits just above the current price—a sweet spot if the RSI-driven rebound kicks in.

For stock, consider entries near $223 (30-day support) with a tight stop below $222. If it holds, target $235–$240 as the first profit zones. The 200-day MA at $197 is a long-term floor, but the near-term focus is on breaking out of the $223–$235 range.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for October 17

ABBV’s options expiry on October 17 could be a catalyst. The heavy call OI at $232.5 and $245 means expiration-day volatility might spike if the stock closes near those strikes. Traders with short puts at $220 could also force buying pressure if ABBV dips.

But here’s the catch: The MACD hasn’t turned positive yet. Until it crosses above the signal line, treat this as a high-conviction trade, not a sure thing. Balance your bullish bias with a plan to cut losses if the 200-day MA ($197) starts to crumble.

Final Take: Bullish Setup, But Stay Nimble

ABBV is at a crossroads. The options market and block trades scream for a move above $230, but technicals warn of a potential false break. If you’re in, keep positions sized for a test of $223. If you’re on the sidelines, the October 17 expiry could offer a clearer signal—especially if that $230 call gains even more steam. Either way, this isn’t a stock to ignore. The question is: Are you ready to ride the rebound—or play defense if the bears make a last stand?