Aave Founder's OTC ENA Move: Liquidity Strategy or Market Risk?

Aave founder Stani Kulechov has deposited 4 million ENA tokens into an over-the-counter (OTC) trading platform, according to monitoring data cited by crypto analytics firm Lookonchain. The transaction, valued at approximately $2.25 million based on recent market prices, has drawn attention due to the scale of the stake and its potential implications for Ethena’s (ENA) market dynamics. This move follows a broader period of volatility for ENA, which has seen a $106 million token unlock in early AugustEthena’s $106M Unlock: Aave Risks and Market Impact^[1] and faces scrutiny over its reliance on Aave for liquidity managementEthena drops after $106M unlock, Aave risk raises concern^[2].

Ethena’s token supply remains partially locked, with only 41% of its total 6.6 billion ENA tokens currently available for trading. The recent unlock of 171.8 million ENA tokens—representing 2.6% of the total supply—has already introduced downward pressure, with the token trading at $0.586 as of September 26, down 5.6% over the past weekEthena drops after $106M unlock, Aave risk raises concern^[2]. The Aave founder’s OTC activity could exacerbate selling pressure, particularly if other large holders follow suit.

The deposit into an OTC platform suggests a strategic approach to liquidity management rather than immediate public market sales. OTC trading allows for discreet execution of large orders, minimizing price slippage and market impact. However, the transaction raises questions about the alignment of incentives between Ethena’s leadership and its token holders. Stani Kulechov’s ownership stake in ENA, acquired through Aave’s investment in Ethena’s ecosystem, remains undisclosed.

Ethena’s integration with Aave has been a double-edged sword. While the protocol provides critical liquidity for Ethena’s stablecoin USDe, it also exposes the project to systemic risks. Aave holds over 55% of USDe’s backing assets, valued at $4.7 billion, through a rehypothecation strategy that overlaps lending and stablecoin collateralEthena’s $106M Unlock: Aave Risks and Market Impact^[1]. Risk analysts have warned that a deleveraging event, such as mass redemptions or loss of trust in USDe, could trigger a liquidity crunch affecting both Aave and EthenaEthena drops after $106M unlock, Aave risk raises concern^[2].

Market participants are closely watching technical indicators for signs of stability. ENA’s price has stabilized above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, suggesting a bullish long-term trend despite short-term volatilityEthena drops after $106M unlock, Aave risk raises concern^[2]. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 53, indicating neutral momentum, while Bollinger Bands show reduced volatility following a recent pullback. A sustained break above $0.60 could signal renewed buying interest, but a drop below $0.56 may test key support levels.

The sale of 4 million ENA into an OTC platform underscores the ongoing challenges faced by Ethena as it navigates token unlocks, liquidity dependencies, and market sentiment. While the project’s partnerships with institutions like Anchorage Digital and its integration with Aave highlight growth potentialFull List of Solana ETFs Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates …^[4], the Aave exposure remains a critical risk factor. Investors are advised to monitor both on-chain activity and regulatory developments, particularly as the broader crypto market awaits potential approvals for Solana and Ethereum ETFs.