AAVE +5.51% Amid $50M Buyback and $35B TVL as Technicals Point to $150–$160 Support

On NOV 4 2025, AAVE rose by 5.51% within 24 hours to reach $196.04, while experiencing a 13.13% drop over the past 7 days and 35.74% over the past year. Despite this, the token continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals, with the Aave DAO launching a $50 million annual buyback program funded by protocol profits. This initiative underscores Aave’s commitment to rewarding token holders and strengthening its ecosystem. Over the past month, Aave generated $98.3 million in fees and $12.6 million in protocol revenue, maintaining a total value locked (TVL) of $35 billion.

The buyback program, alongside Aave’s consistent cash flow and high TVL, signals confidence in the platform’s long-term stability and growth potential. These financial metrics distinguish Aave from speculative projects and support a bullish outlook for AAVE in 2025.

Technical indicators also reinforce the case for Aave’s potential recovery. Key support now sits in the $150–$160 range, aligning with a long-standing upward trendline that has held since 2023. Analysts suggest that if this level holds, Aave could see a reversal that propels the price toward $240, with further upside potential to $341 in the near term. A decisive break above $341 could open the door for a rally toward $446–$538 by year-end. This technical setup is viewed as a healthy retracement rather than a sign of weakness, especially in the context of broader crypto market volatility.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the technical outlook, a backtest can be constructed based on the assumption that Aave will reverse from its $150–$160 support level. The backtest would follow a rule-based strategy: enter long when the price closes within 2% of the most recent 50-day low and confirms with a higher close the following day. The exit rule would be a first close ≥ $341, or if that level is never reached, close any open position by the test end date of 2025-11-04. These assumptions reflect a disciplined approach to capturing potential upside from a defined technical level.