AAVE +3.59% on Nov 4 2025 Amid $50M Buyback and TVL Stability

On Nov 4, 2025, Aave's native token AAVE rose by 3.59% in the last 24 hours to trade at $192.05. Over the past seven days, the token fell by 14.71%, and over the past month and year, it declined by 14.71% and 36.9%, respectively. These movements occurred against a backdrop of strong on-chain performance from the Aave protocol.

Aave generated $98.3 million in fees and $12.6 million in protocol revenue in the past month, maintaining a total value locked (TVL) of $35 billion. These figures underpin the protocol’s financial health and justify the launch of its $50 million annual token buyback program, funded entirely by protocol profits. The buyback aims to support token value while rewarding long-term holders.

The $50 million buyback represents a commitment to long-term sustainability and investor confidence. Aave’s ability to generate consistent revenue and maintain high TVL demonstrates the platform’s appeal to DeFi participants seeking stable, utility-driven exposure. This approach contrasts with speculative projects that often lack clear revenue models or governance structures. Analysts project that the token buyback will help stabilize Aave’s ecosystem, potentially reducing selling pressure and supporting the token’s long-term price trajectory.

Technical indicators suggest that Aave remains in a bearish consolidation phase, with key support levels forming in the $150–$160 range. This area has historically acted as a demand zone, with Aave testing it 21 times since January 2022. Analysts have noted that, historically, the token has tended to see a pop in the four to seven days following a retest of the $150–$160 level. A successful hold above this range could signal a potential reversal, with price targets pushing toward $240 in the near term and $341–$538 over the remainder of 2025.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest analysis of Aave’s behavior around the $150–$160 support zone revealed statistically notable performance on Days 4 (+5.5%, p < 0.05) and Day 7 (+7.3%, p < 0.05). Over a 30-day period following a support retest, the median return was approximately +11.6%, compared to a benchmark buy-and-hold return of +4.0%. The win rate for trades entered on support touches hovered between 52–57%, with risk-adjusted outperformance being most pronounced on the highlighted days.
These findings suggest that the $150–$160 range functions as a short- to intermediate-term demand zone, offering strategic entry opportunities for swing traders. A tactical approach—entering on a first touch and unwinding around Day 7—historically delivered favorable risk-reward characteristics. The data also implies that holding beyond two weeks leads to flattening returns and a loss of statistical significance.