AAR's Q2 Earnings Outlook and Analyst Momentum: A Strategic Buy Opportunity?

In the volatile landscape of aviation and aerospace, AAR Corporation (NYSE: AIR) has emerged as a focal point for Wall Street analysts, with a consensus of "Strong Buy" ratings and aggressive price target upgrades in late 2025. As the company prepares to release its Q2 2026 earnings on January 6, 2026, investors are scrutinizing whether the recent analyst momentum justifies a proactive investment stance. This analysis evaluates the credibility of high-accuracy analysts, quantifies the near-term stock impact of their upgrades, and assesses AAR's fundamentals to determine if the stock represents a strategic buy opportunity.

Analyst Credibility: High-Accuracy Voices Drive Confidence

The credibility of Wall Street analysts covering AAR is underscored by their historical accuracy rates. RBC Capital's , for instance, according to data, according to data. Truist Securities' and Benchmark's Josh Sullivan further bolster confidence, , respectively according to data. These metrics, derived from July 2025 data, highlight the reliability of these analysts' insights. Their recent upgrades-such as RBC's November 26, 2025, price target increase to $90 and KeyBanc's September 29, 2025, raise to $93-carry significant weight, as they reflect not only optimism but also a proven track record of predictive success.

Near-Term Stock Impact: Price Movements Validate Analyst Optimism

The stock price of AAR has responded measurably to these upgrades. Following RBC's November 26, 2025, upgrade, the stock , 2025. Similarly, KeyBanc's September 29, 2025, upgrade saw the stock on October 1, 2025, . While the latter move exhibited short-term volatility, the broader trend aligns with historical patterns: a study of 66,516 analyst recommendations . This suggests that AAR's stock is likely to continue reacting positively to analyst-driven momentum, particularly as the average 12-month price target of $91.20 .

AAR's Fundamentals: Strategic Acquisitions and EBITDA Growth

Beyond analyst sentiment, AAR's financial performance provides a robust foundation for optimism. In Q2 FY2025, the company , exceeding expectations, . Strategic acquisitions, including American Distribution (ADI) and HAECO Americas, have expanded its Parts Supply segment, . These moves, coupled with a current ratio of 2.91 and , underscore AAR's ability to capitalize on aviation market recovery and supply chain diversification trends.

Investment Thesis: Balancing Risks and Rewards

While AAR's fundamentals and analyst momentum are compelling, risks persist. The stock's volatility post-KeyBanc's September 2025 upgrade highlights sensitivity to market conditions, and earnings surprises-both positive and negative-can amplify short-term swings. However, the alignment of high-accuracy analysts' upgrades with AAR's operational strides suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its peers. Jefferies' initiation of coverage with a $100 price target-below the peer average EBITDA multiple of 16x but implying a 10.5x multiple for FY2027-further indicates untapped upside.

Conclusion: A Strategic Buy Ahead of Q2 Earnings

The convergence of credible analyst upgrades, favorable stock price reactions, and AAR's strong financial trajectory positions the stock as a strategic buy ahead of its Q2 2026 earnings release. With a consensus price target of $91.20 and a historical tendency for buy-recommended stocks to outperform, investors are well-positioned to capitalize on AAR's momentum. While risks such as market volatility remain, the company's strategic acquisitions and EBITDA growth potential justify a proactive stance. As the aviation sector continues to recover, AAR's stock appears poised to deliver meaningful returns for those entering ahead of the January 6 earnings print.