AAPL Options Signal Bullish Setup: 280C Calls and 270P Puts Highlight Key Juncture for Holiday Trading

• AAPL trades at $274.35, up 0.73% with RSI at 24.29 (oversold territory)
• Call OI dominance at $280 strike (28,509 contracts) vs. put OI peak at $270 (13,281)
• Block trades show $478K put buy and $431K call accumulation ahead of October expirations

Here's the takeaway: AAPL is dancing on a tightrope between short-term bearish momentum and long-term bullish fundamentals. The options market is pricing in a high-probability scenario where Apple either breaks above $277.31 (middle Bollinger Band) or tests its 30D support at $278.61. Given the 0.67 put/call ratio imbalance, I'm leaning bullish—but let's break it down.

Where Institutional Money Is Flowing

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday's expirations, the AAPL20251226C280 call options dominate with 28,509 open contracts—nearly double the nearest competitor. This suggests institutional players are hedging for a post-holiday pop. Meanwhile, the AAPL20251226P270 put options (13,281 OI) act as a safety net for downside risks.

But don't ignore the block trades. The $431K AAPL20251017C240 call purchase and $192K AAPL20250926P235 put accumulation signal big players are positioning for October catalysts. These trades hint at a "buy the rumor, sell the news" strategy as Apple's foldable iPhone rumors heat up.

News That Could Shift the Odds

Apple's $4 trillion market cap milestone and $109B Services revenue are tailwinds. But here's the twist: leadership transitions (CFO exit, AI chief departure) create uncertainty. The options market is pricing in a 67% call bias, which aligns with the company's 2026 AI push. However, the recent executive exodus might keep volatility elevated—think of it as a storm cloud over an otherwise sunny forecast.

Your Playbook for Today

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy AAPL20260102C280 (next Friday's $280 call) if AAPL closes above $277.31 today. The 30D MA at $275.25 acts as a psychological floor.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy AAPL20251226P270 to protect against a drop below $268.96 (lower Bollinger Band).

For stock traders:

• Entry Alert: Consider buying AAPL near $272.25 (today's low) if it holds above the 200D MA ($230.29).
• Targets: First resistance at 30D support ($278.61), then Bollinger Upper Band ($285.66).
• Stop Loss: Below $268.96 triggers a reevaluation.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test AAPL's resolve. With Bollinger Bands stretched wide and RSI near oversold levels, a rebound seems imminent—but don't be surprised if leadership news shakes things up. The key is to stay nimble: long calls for the AI hype train, puts for the unexpected, and a watchful eye on that $277.31 pivot point. This is a stock at a crossroads, and the options market is betting on a bullish resolution.