AAPL Options Signal Bullish Setup: 280-Call Focus as AI Launch Nears

• Options volume surged 4.13M calls, 3.55M puts ahead of 2026 AI Siri rollout
• Call/put imbalance favors $280 strike with 36,317 open contracts this Friday
• Block trades hint at institutional positioning, including 880K bought calls at $240

The options market is whispering a clear message: Apple’s stock is primed for a breakout. With call open interest dominating near $280 and block trades hinting at strategic bets, the data points to upside potential—but only if key support levels hold. Let’s break down why traders should watch $273.42 and $280 like hawks today.

Bullish Pressure at $280, Institutional Moves in the Shadows

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. This Friday’s top OTM call at $280 (OI: 36,317) dwarfs the nearest put at $272.5 (OI: 9,043), creating a 4:1 imbalance. That’s not just noise—it’s a crowd of traders betting on a push above $275. The MACD’s negative histogram (-0.72) adds a wrinkle: while the trend is bullish, momentum is flagging. But here’s the kicker: block trades like AAPL20251017C240 (880K bought) suggest big players are hedging or scaling up ahead of the AI launch.

Don’t ignore the puts, though. The $272.5 strike (OI: 9,043) acts like a speed bump. If price cracks below $271.76 (intraday low), that support could evaporate, sending shares toward $267.88 (lower Bollinger Band). The RSI at 39.13 isn’t screaming oversold, but it’s close enough to suggest a rebound could be near—if buyers show up.

AI Hype Meets Real Money: Why the Options Bet Makes Sense

Apple’s financials are bulletproof: 31.97% operating margin, $26.92B net income last quarter. But the real catalyst? That AI-powered Siri isn’t just a feature—it’s a platform play. The options surge aligns with analyst chatter about 2026 being Apple’s "AI breakout year." Here’s the catch: the stock’s trading near all-time highs. If the AI rollout underwhelms, those 3.55M puts could turn into a selloff. Consumer perception matters—remember when Siri first launched? Hype > reality led to a slump. This time, though, Apple’s ecosystem integration might just justify the premium.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

• Aggressive Call Play: Buy AAPL20260109C280 (next Friday expiry). Why? The $280 strike has 28,637 open contracts and sits just 3% above current price. If Apple gaps higher on AI buzz, this could run. Entry: $275.00+; Target: $285 (5% gain); Stop: $273.42 (30D support).
• Stock Entry: Consider buying AAPL near $273.42 if price bounces off 30D support. Target $280 (Bollinger Band upper edge) with a tight stop at $271.76.
• Bearish Hedge: Sell AAPL20260109P272.5 against long calls. The $272.5 put has 2,182 OI and could act as a cheap insurance policy if the AI rollout stumbles.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

The next 72 hours will test Apple’s resolve. A close above $275.25 (30D MA) would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $270 would reignite bearish chatter. The block trades—especially that 600K put buy at $235—show big players aren’t all-in. This isn’t a one-way bet. But for traders who can stomach short-term noise, the setup at $280 feels like a calculated gamble. After all, Apple’s last AI-driven rally in 2024 saw a 12% pop in a week. History might repeat—if the product delivers.