AAPL Options Signal Bullish Setup at $280–$300 as Puts at $230 Warn of Downside Risk—Here’s How to Play It

• AAPL trades at $269.14, down 1% from its 2025 high of $273.62 amid a bearish engulfing candle.
• Call open interest peaks at $300 and $280, while puts dominate at $230—put/call ratio: 0.71 (calls > puts).
• Analysts from Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, and Citi target $315–$330, citing AI and iPhone 17 momentum.

Here’s the takeaway: AAPL is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish pressure and long-term bullish fundamentals. The stock’s 1% drop today aligns with a bearish engulfing pattern, but the 30-day moving average ($274.87) and institutional call buying at $300 suggest a potential rebound. Let’s break down the numbers and what they mean for your strategy.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is split. Calls dominate at $300 (OI: 48,848) and $280 (OI: 47,099), indicating heavy positioning for a rebound above $275. But puts at $230 (OI: 22,631) show a dark undercurrent—any drop below $267.13 (lower Bollinger Band) could trigger panic selling.

Block trades add intrigue. A $478K block of puts at AAPL20250919P255 (expiring Sept 19) and a $431K call buy at AAPL20251017C240 (Oct 17) suggest big players are hedging or scalping volatility. The key takeaway? Bullish money is stacking up for a $280–$300 breakout, but downside risks linger near $230.

News Flow: AI Hype vs. Legal Headwinds

Analysts are bullish on Apple’s AI pivot—Morgan Stanley and Citi raised targets to $315–$330, citing Siri 2.0 and Gemini integration. But the stock isn’t in a vacuum. The partial loss in the Epic Games case and insider selling (negative corporate sentiment) add friction. The good news? The 30-day MA at $274.87 and strong services revenue ($25% of 2026 forecasts) still anchor the long-term case.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls at $280–$300, Puts at $260

For options traders, focus on these setups:

• Bullish: Buy AAPL20251226C280 (next Friday, $280 strike) if AAPL breaks above $275. The 30-day MA and RSI at 39.69 (oversold) hint at a rebound.
• Bearish: Buy AAPL20251226P260 (next Friday, $260 strike) if price drops to $267.13 (lower Bollinger Band). The 200-day MA at $229.54 is a distant floor.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry: $267.13 (lower Bollinger Band) if support holds. Target $278.61 (30-day MA) as a first exit.
• Stop-loss: Below $266.96 (today’s low) invalidates the short-term bullish case.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Near-Term Risks

The next 72 hours will test AAPL’s resolve. A close above $275 could reignite call buying at $300, while a drop below $267.13 might force institutions to defend the $250–$260 range. The path of least resistance? A rebound to $280–$300, fueled by AI hype and the iPhone 17 cycle. But don’t ignore the puts at $230—this isn’t a one-way trade.

Bottom line: Position for a rebound but hedge with puts at $260. The market is pricing in a $300+ future, but the road there could be bumpy. Stay nimble.