AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Target $280 Call Strategy as Earnings Optimism Builds

• Apple trades at $273.07, down 0.12% from prior close, but RSI (36.15) hints at oversold rebound potential.
• Options data shows 27,828 open interest at the $280 call (this Friday’s expiry) vs. 6,156 at the $270 put—call bias is 0.69x put/call ratio.
• Block trades reveal $478K in mystery puts at $255 (Sep expiry) and $431K in bought calls at $240 (Oct expiry).

Here’s the takeaway: Options market sentiment is skewed bullish, with heavy call open interest at key strikes and technicals hinting at a short-term rebound. But don’t ignore the shadows—those block trades suggest some hedging activity. Let’s dig into why this setup matters.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The OTM call options are piling up at $280 (27,828 OI) and $275 (15,872 OI) for this Friday’s expiry. That’s not random—it’s a vote of confidence. Think of it like a crowd at a concert: if everyone’s buying tickets to the front row, you know the headliner’s going to draw a crowd. Traders are pricing in a potential break above $275, with $280 as a psychological target.

But the puts aren’t ignored. The $270 strike (6,156 OI) and $265 (5,664 OI) show some defensive positioning. It’s a tug-of-war: bulls are stacking up, but bears aren’t entirely out of the game. The block trades add intrigue. That $431K call buy at $240 (AAPL20251017C240) suggests institutional players are hedging for a longer-term rally. Meanwhile, the mystery puts at $255 (AAPL20250919P255) hint at uncertainty—maybe a hedge against regulatory risks or earnings misses.

How Apple’s Earnings and AI Hype Fuel This Setup

Apple’s Q4 2025 results? A 10% revenue pop, driven by iPhone and Services. Management’s now projecting double-digit iPhone growth in Q1 2026. That’s not just numbers—it’s a green light for investors. The Services segment’s 75.3% margin? That’s the kind of cash flow that makes analysts salivate.

But here’s the catch: the DOJ and EU are still circling. Regulatory risks aren’t gone, and that’s why those puts at $255 exist. Still, the AI angle—Siri Premium, new product categories—adds a layer of optimism. The stock’s 12.1% YTD gain isn’t a fluke; it’s a sign of resilience. Combine that with $110B in free cash flow and aggressive buybacks, and you’ve got a machine primed for growth.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels

For options traders: Buy the AAPL20260102C280 call (this Friday’s $280 strike). Why? The RSI is oversold, and the 30D moving average ($275.20) is a near-term hurdle. If price breaks above $275, the $280 call could catch fire. Alternatively, a bull put spread with AAPL20260109P270 (sell) and AAPL20260109P265 (buy) could lock in a 50-cent spread if support holds above $268.29 (lower Bollinger Band).

For stock players: Consider entry near $273 if the 200D MA ($230.84) keeps acting as a floor. Target $280 as a first profit zone, with a stop-loss below $268.29. The 30D support/resistance range (278.61–279.01) could become a battleground in early January.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Risks

The setup is clear: technicals and options data align on a short-term bullish bias. But don’t ignore the risks. Regulatory headwinds and the block trades at $255 suggest some hedging. If Apple’s AI bets pay off, the $280–$290 range could be the new home. But if the DOJ case escalates, those puts at $265 might get exercised.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for Q1. The call at $280 is your all-in bet; the put spread is your cautious play. Either way, the market’s pricing in a story of growth—and that’s a narrative worth betting on… for now.