AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Target $280 as Call OI Surges and Earnings Momentum Builds

• Current Price: AAPL trades at $273.49, down 0.1% from the previous close.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest (OI) dominates at 3.01M vs. 2.04M puts, with heavy call OI at $280 and $275.
• Earnings Catalyst: Q4 revenue hit $102.5B, beating estimates, with Services up 15% YoY and AI roadmap upgrades.

The options market and technicals are painting a clear picture: upside potential is favored, but near-term volatility could test key levels. Let’s break down why $280 is the critical strike to watch—and how to position for it.

Bullish OI Clusters and Whale Moves: A Playbook for $280

The options chain shows a lopsided bullish bias. For this Friday’s expiration, call OI peaks at $280 (33,838 contracts) and $275 (20,542), while puts max out at $270 (8,622). This suggests institutional players are hedging or speculating on a near-term breakout above $274.08 (intraday high).

The block trades add intrigue. A $478K put block at $255 (expiring 9/19) and a $431K call buy at $240 (expiring 10/17) hint at mixed positioning. But the largest move—a 880-lot call buy at $240—signals confidence in a mid-October rally. Combine this with the MACD histogram turning negative and RSI at 39, and it feels like a pre-breakout consolidation phase.

Earnings Momentum vs. China Headwinds: What’s the Real Story?

Apple’s Q4 beat was driven by Services growth and AI roadmap updates, with analysts hiking price targets to $330. But the 4% China revenue drop and Barclays’ “Sell” rating add friction. The key here is perception: investors are buying the AI narrative and Services resilience, even as hardware risks linger.

This creates a two-tier trade. Short-term bulls can ride the AI hype, while longer-term players need to watch China’s recovery and iPhone 17 demand. The good news? The 200D MA at $231 is a distant floor, and the 30D support at $273.42 is holding firm.

Actionable Trades: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels to Watch

1. Options Play: Buy AAPL20260109C280 (next Friday’s $280 call) if AAPL breaks above $274.08. The high OI at this strike suggests liquidity and a potential short-covering rally.
2. Stock Entry: Target a long entry near $273.50 if the price holds above the 30D support. First resistance is $276.69 (middle Bollinger Band), with a projected target at $277 (upper band).
3. Bearish Hedge: Buy a put spread at $270 (AAPL20260109P270) and sell at $265 to cap losses if the RSI dips below 30.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Bias and Risks

The data tells a story of controlled optimism. Call dominance and earnings momentum favor a push toward $280, but the RSI and MACD signal caution—don’t chase a breakout without confirmation. Watch the Bollinger Bands closely: a close above $276.69 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $267.97 (lower band) could trigger panic selling.

In the end, this is a textbook setup for a measured breakout trade. The options market is pricing in a $280+ move, but the stock’s fundamentals—strong Services, AI bets, and a 12.1% YTD gain—justify the optimism. Stay nimble, and let the data guide your entries.

Final note: Always size positions to risk, and consider the broader macro (interest rates, China demand) as 2026 unfolds. The AI race is on, and Apple’s moves could surprise either way.