AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Q1 2026

• Current Price Action: AAPL trades at $273.01, down 0.14% with volume at 7.16M.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest (2.94M) outpaces puts (2.02M), with a put/call ratio of 0.69.
• Technical Setup: RSI at 36.15 (oversold) clashes with bearish MACD (-0.98 histogram).
• News Catalyst: Services growth and AI-driven demand hint at Q1 upside, but regulatory risks linger.

The big picture? Options data and technicals are at odds: short-term bearish momentum vs. long-term bullish positioning. Here’s how to navigate the tension.Bullish Sentiment in Options, But Caution Required

Let’s start with the OTM options. Calls at $280 ($27,828 OI) and $300 ($13,442 OI) dominate this Friday’s chain, while puts at $270 ($6,156 OI) and $265 ($5,664 OI) show limited downside fear. The call-heavy skew suggests traders are pricing in a rebound above $275—a level just below today’s intraday high. But don’t ignore the block trades: a 880-lot buy of AAPL20251017C240 (strike $240) and a 600-lot put purchase at AAPL20250926P235 signal mixed institutional signals. The $240 call block, expiring Oct 17, hints at long-term conviction, while the $235 put suggests hedging ahead of earnings.

News Flow: Growth Drivers vs. Regulatory Headwinds

Apple’s Q4 results and Q1 guidance are undeniably strong. A 15% services growth and $112B net income validate its ecosystem moat. But the DOJ case and EU DMA compliance could pressure margins. Here’s the catch: investors are already pricing in the AI-driven demand for high-performance devices (e.g., M4 Macs, Vision Pro), which supports the $280+ call activity. Yet regulatory risks and China exposure keep the RSI stuck in oversold territory—a classic case of ‘buy the news, sell the news’.

Actionable Trade Ideas for Q1 2026

For options traders, focus on two setups:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy AAPL20260102C275 ($275 call, OI: 15,872) and sell AAPL20260102C285 ($285 call). This caps risk while leveraging the $275–$285 resistance cluster. If AAPL breaks above $275 tomorrow, the spread could profit from implied volatility compression.
• Long Call for Q1 Upside: Buy AAPL20260109C300 ($300 call, OI: 3,740) if AAPL closes above $276.50 (middle Bollinger Band). This is a high-risk/high-reward play for those betting on Q1’s double-digit revenue growth.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry Near $272.35 (today’s low) if price holds above the 30D MA ($275.20). Target $279.01 (30D resistance) or $285.59 (upper Bollinger Band).
• Stop-Loss at $268.29 (lower Bollinger Band) to protect against a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test AAPL’s resolve. A close above $275.20 could reignite the 200D MA ($230.84) rally, while a drop below $268.29 might trigger a test of the 200D support zone ($211.10–$213.38). Options traders should monitor the $275–$280 strike cluster for liquidity shifts—those calls could become a battleground for Q1’s direction.

Final Take

AAPL sits at a crossroads: technical indicators whisper caution, but options activity and fundamentals scream bullish. The key is balancing the short-term bearish MACD with the long-term MA crossover. For now, the $275 level is your litmus test. If it holds, the 200D MA looks like a distant memory. If it breaks… well, the puts at $265 are waiting.