AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Dec 26 & Jan 2 Expiry

• Call dominance at $280 and $300 strikes shows aggressive bullish positioning ahead of expiry.
• Block trades hint at hedging or speculative bets on AI-driven rebound, with $235 puts and $240 calls in focus.
• RSI near oversold levels and long-term bullish MA suggest a potential rebound, but short-term bearish momentum persists.

Here’s the thing: Apple’s options market is sending a clear message—traders are leaning bullish, even as the stock dips below key moving averages. The data points to a potential rebound, but timing and execution will be critical.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls, Block Trades Signal Strategy Shifts

The options chain tells a story of optimism. For this Friday’s expiry (Dec 26), AAPL20251226C280 (23,650 open interest) and AAPL20251226C275 (14,567 OI) dominate call activity, while next Friday’s AAPL20260102C300 (12,872 OI) shows even more aggressive positioning. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence in Apple’s ability to break above $280, especially with AI integration and new product cycles in play.

On the put side, AAPL20251226P260 (9,367 OI) and AAPL20251226P270 (8,934 OI) suggest some hedging against a drop below $265. But here’s the kicker: the put/call ratio for open interest is just 0.686, meaning calls are outpacing puts by a wide margin. That’s a classic sign of a market bracing for a breakout.

Block trades add another layer. A $478K buy of AAPL20250919P255 (put) and an $880K purchase of AAPL20251017C240 (call) signal mixed signals—some big players are hedging, while others are betting on a rebound. The $4.5B AI acquisition and new M4 MacBooks could be the catalysts they’re banking on.

News Flow: AI Hype vs. iPhone Weakness—Which Wins?

Apple’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The Q4 revenue record and AI acquisition are bullish, but the 7% iPhone sales drop forecast is a headwind. Here’s the rub: the market already priced in some of this. The stock hit a 52-week high earlier this year, but recent volatility (down 0.6% today) reflects near-term jitters.

The key is how investors perceive these risks. The AI acquisition and AR+ subscription service could offset iPhone weakness by boosting services revenue. But if China and Europe underperform, the stock might struggle to hold above $269.55 (lower Bollinger Band). The RSI at 30.3 suggests oversold conditions, though, so a rebound isn’t out of the question.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Safety

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• Buy AAPL20251226C280 (Dec 26 expiry): If Apple closes above $273.88 (intraday high), this call could gain steam. Target a 10–15% move if the stock breaks $280.
• Buy AAPL20260102C300 (Jan 2 expiry): A longer-term bet on AI-driven growth. This is riskier but offers higher reward if the stock surges past $290.
• Buy AAPL20251226P260 (Dec 26 expiry): A safety net if the stock drops below $271.51 (intraday low). This could pay off if the 200D MA ($229.91) isn’t breached.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $269.55 (lower Bollinger Band) if support holds. Target $275–$280 as a short-term goal.
• Exit above $278.61 (30D support/resistance zone) to lock in gains.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Potential and Near-Term Risks

The next two weeks will be pivotal. If Apple’s AI integration and new product launches gain traction, the stock could reclaim its 30D MA ($275.07) and test $285. But watch for a breakdown below $265—anything below that could trigger a deeper correction. The block trades hint at a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but the options data leans decisively bullish.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction setup. If you’re in, manage risk with tight stops. If you’re on the sidelines, the coming week’s earnings or product announcements could be your entry point. Either way, Apple’s options market is telling us to keep our eyes on $280 and $260 as the battleground for the next leg of this trade.