AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Dec 19–26

• AAPL trades at $275.35, up 0.27% with volume at 2.96M—well below 30D average.
• Call open interest dominates at $280–$300 strikes, while puts cluster at $230–$275. Put/Call ratio: 0.72 (calls favored).
• Block trades show heavy put buying at $230 and call accumulation at $280, hinting at strategic positioning ahead of earnings.

Here’s the takeaway: options market sentiment leans bullish, but technicals show a tug-of-war between short-term bears and long-term bulls. Let’s break it down.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The call/put imbalance is striking. For Friday’s expiry (Dec 19), AAPL20251219C280 and AAPL20251219C300 dominate open interest, with 47,122 and 48,915 contracts respectively. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence. Meanwhile, puts at $230 ($22,648 OI) and $200 ($21,586 OI) suggest some hedging against a worst-case drop.

But here’s the twist: block trades tell a layered story. The AAPL20250919P255 put block trades (two at $478K and $472K) hint at institutional hedging for older expiries. Meanwhile, the AAPL20251017C240 call block buy ($431K) shows conviction in a rebound. The message? Traders are pricing in a near-term rally but aren’t ignoring downside risks.

News Flow: Buffett’s Exit vs. AI Hurdles and Analyst Upgrades

Warren Buffett’s 74% reduction in AAPL holdings (selling 41.7M shares) has rattled some investors. But Morgan Stanley just raised the price target to $315, citing 8.7% YoY revenue growth and AI bets. The catch? Apple’s delayed AI rollout (Siri’s upgrade pushed to 2026) could widen the gap with competitors like Google.

Here’s the rub: Buffett’s move might signal overvaluation concerns, but the $36 P/E ratio still looks rich compared to Alphabet’s $30. If AI delivers in 2026, the stock could rebound. If not? The $266.25 Bollinger Band lower bound becomes a critical support level.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bullish, Puts for the Prudent

For the aggressive: Buy AAPL20251219C280 (Dec 19 expiry). Why? The $280 strike is just 1.6% above current price, and with 47,122 contracts in OI, there’s liquidity. If AAPL holds above $274.83 (intraday low), this call could catch a pop. Exit at $285 or above if the 30D support at $278.61 holds.

For the cautious: Buy AAPL20251226P275 (Dec 26 expiry). The $275 strike has 20,561 OI and sits near the 30D support zone. If AAPL dips below $274.83 (middle Bollinger Band), this put offers downside protection. Target a close below $266.25 for a stronger move.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $274.80 (30D MA) if the price holds above $274.83. A break above $278.61 (30D support) could target $285–$290. If it fails, watch $266.25 (lower Bollinger Band) as a critical floor.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test AAPL’s resolve. With earnings season approaching and AI delays still fresh, the stock could swing wildly. But the options data—and Morgan Stanley’s $315 target—suggest the long-term bull case isn’t dead. Just be ready: if the $274.80 moving average breaks, the 200D support at $211.10 looms as a distant but real risk. Stay nimble, and let the data guide your next move.