AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Strategies for 2026 Volatility

• AAPL trades at $273.33, slightly below its 30-day moving average of $275.22 but above critical 200D support at $211.10.
• Options market shows 43% more open interest in calls than puts, with heavy call volume at $280 and $275 strikes.
• Block trades reveal $478K put sale at $255 and $431K call buy at $240—hinting at mixed institutional positioning.

Here’s the takeaway: AAPL’s options activity and technicals point to a bullish bias with caution. The stock is testing key support levels while options traders are loading up on calls above $275. But don’t ignore the bearish block trades—they could trigger volatility if the stock dips.

Bullish Sentiment in Options, But Watch for Bearish Whales

The options chain tells a story. For this Friday’s expiration (Jan 2, 2026), the top call strikes at $280 and $275 have 33,838 and 20,542 open contracts—nearly 50% of total call OI. That’s a clear signal: traders expect AAPL to test $280 before year-end.

But the puts aren’t ignored. The $270 and $265 strikes have 8,622 and 8,060 open puts, respectively. That’s not just noise—it’s a hedge against a potential pullback. And the block trades? A $478K put sale at $255 (expiring Sept 19) and a $431K call buy at $240 (Oct 17) suggest institutional players are preparing for both directions.

News Flow: Buffett’s Exit vs. Analyst Optimism

Warren Buffett’s 50% reduction in AAPL holdings (now $65B stake) raises red flags for long-term bulls. But analysts aren’t panicking. Citigroup and Wedbush just raised price targets to $330 and $350, citing strong Q4 earnings and AI monetization potential.

The catch? Insiders sold $58.6M in shares recently, and the stock’s Zacks Value Score is an F—it’s trading at a premium. That premium might not hold if growth slows, but the fundamentals (10.6% YoY revenue growth, $8.11 EPS forecast) still look solid.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Bulls, Puts for Hedges

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy AAPL20260102C280 (Jan 2 $280 call) at $2.50–$3.00. If AAPL breaks above $276.69 (Bollinger Middle Band), this strike could gain 20%+ in a week.
• Bearish Hedge: Short AAPL20260102P265 (Jan 2 $265 put) at $0.13–$0.15. The RSI at 39 suggests oversold conditions, and support at $273.43 (30D level) is holding.

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying AAPL near $272.28 (intraday low) if it holds above $270. Target $285–$290, aligning with Bollinger Upper Band and analyst price targets.
• Stop-Loss: Below $267.97 (Bollinger Lower Band) would invalidate the bullish case.

Volatility on the Horizon

AAPL’s options market is a battleground. The call-heavy OI suggests a breakout attempt, but the bearish block trades and Buffett’s exit add risk. My read? Go long with a tight stop near $270, and use the $280 call as a leveraged play. If the stock surprises to the downside, the $265 put offers cheap insurance.

This isn’t a one-way bet—it’s a dance between optimism and caution. And in 2026, AAPL’s next move could define the year for tech stocks.