AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• Apple’s options market shows heavy call open interest at $270 and $280 strikes, hinting at a potential rebound.
• A $260 put block trade (2,000 contracts) suggests institutional hedging ahead of Friday’s expiry.
• RSI at 19.8 and MACD divergence warn of short-term oversold conditions, but 200D MA at $211.10 remains a critical floor.

Here’s the takeaway: AAPL is perched at a crossroads. The stock’s 0.15% dip today masks a broader story—options traders are pricing in a bullish bias, while technicals hint at a possible bounce. Let’s break down what this means for your strategy.

Bullish Sentiment in the Options Chain: Calls Dominate, Puts Signal Caution

The options market isn’t just bullish—it’s selectively bullish. For Friday’s expiry (Jan 16), the top call open interest sits at $270 (98,388 contracts) and $280 (73,624), while puts dominate at $150 and $180. This skew suggests traders expect a rebound toward $270 but are hedging against extreme downside scenarios (though $150 puts seem wildly pessimistic).

The most telling move? A block trade of 2,000 puts at AAPL20260116P260, totaling $490,000. This isn’t just noise—it’s a signal that big players are locking in protection as the stock approaches its 30-day support level ($257.76). Think of it like a captain securing the lifeboats before a storm: they’re not predicting a crash, but they’re not ignoring the risk either.

News Flow: AI Alliances and Execution Risks

Apple’s partnership with Google on AI is the week’s headline event. While Wedbush’s $350 price target feels aspirational, the collaboration validates Apple’s long-term AI ambitions. But here’s the catch: JPMorgan notes the company’s underinvestment in AI infrastructure compared to Microsoft or Google. That means the stock’s upside hinges on execution—will the AI-enhanced Siri launch in time for Q2 2026? Or will component shortages delay the Vision Pro?

The services segment’s 11.56% growth is a bright spot, but regulatory risks (EU antitrust probes) and supply chain headwinds could cap near-term gains. Investors are betting on Apple’s ecosystem, but the market isn’t pricing in certainty.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Rebound, Puts for the Floor

For options traders, the AAPL20260116C270 call is a high-conviction play. If the stock breaks above today’s intraday high of $261.81, this strike could see explosive demand. For a safer bet, consider a call spread between $270 and $280 (using Friday’s expiry) to cap risk while leveraging the bullish skew.

On the stock side, target an entry near $258.39 (today’s low) if the price holds above the lower Bollinger Band. A break above $261.81 would validate the short-term bullish case, with a first target at $273.70 (30-day support/resistance). For downside protection, a put spread at $250 and $260 (using next Friday’s expiry) could hedge against a breakdown below $257.76.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Strategic Risks

The key takeaway? AAPL is in a tightrope phase. The options market is pricing in a rebound, but technical indicators (RSI at 19.8, MACD divergence) suggest the stock is oversold. This creates a high-probability setup for a short-term bounce—but don’t ignore the risks. If the price closes below $257.76, the 200D MA at $211.10 becomes a critical psychological level.

For now, the AI partnership and services growth are tailwinds. But execution risks and regulatory headwinds mean this isn’t a straight-line trade. Stay nimble, and let the options market guide your entry points. After all, the best traders don’t chase trends—they anticipate them.