AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Strategic Entry Points for Jan 16 Expiry

• Current Price Action: AAPL trades at $259.6, down 0.14% from yesterday’s close, with intraday volume surging to 17.8 million shares.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest (3.24M) outpaces puts (2.26M), with heavy call OI at $270 and $280 strikes.
• Technical Signal: RSI at 19 (oversold) and price near Bollinger Band lower bound ($255.96) hint at potential rebound.

Here’s the takeaway: The options market is pricing in a bullish bias ahead of Friday’s expiry, but technicals suggest a short-term bounce could face resistance at key moving averages. Let’s break it down.Bullish OI Clusters and Bearish Block Trades

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For Friday’s expiry (Jan 16), AAPL20260116C270 and AAPL20260116C280 calls dominate open interest (95,364 and 67,888 contracts, respectively). This suggests traders are betting on a rebound above $270, a level just below the 30D MA at $271.88. But don’t ignore the puts: AAPL20260116P265 saw a massive block trade of 700 puts sold for $416,500. That’s a bearish signal—someone’s hedging a short position or betting on a drop below $265.

The Put/Call ratio (0.697) leans bullish, but the RSI at 19 is screaming “oversold.” Think of it like a compressed spring: the price could snap upward if buyers step in, but the MACD (-3.74) and bearish Kline pattern warn of lingering short-term pressure. The key is watching whether $261.03 (intraday high) holds as resistance.

News-Driven Narrative: AI Hype vs. Margin Pressures

Apple’s AI partnership with Google is the headline act. Analysts are bullish on services growth, and price targets like $305 are circulating. But rising memory chip prices could crimp margins—a risk not fully priced into the options. The block trade selling AAPL20260116P265 might reflect hedge funds hedging against margin-driven declines. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s 74% cut in Apple shares raises questions about long-term conviction.

The market is split: some see AI-driven growth, others worry about near-term costs. This duality creates a volatile backdrop. If the earnings report on Jan 29 exceeds expectations, the $270–$280 call strikes could ignite. But if chip costs bite harder, the $255–$260 range (lower Bollinger Band) becomes critical support.

Actionable Trade IdeasOptions Play: Buy AAPL20260116C270 calls if AAPL breaks above $261.03. Target $275–$280 for a 15–20% gain by expiry. Alternatively, a bearish put spread using AAPL20260116P265 and AAPL20260116P255 could profit if the price drops below $260.Stock Play: Consider a long entry near $258 (intraday low) if the price holds above the 200D MA ($233.71). Set a stop-loss at $255.96 (lower Bollinger Band) and target $270–$275. For a safer bet, wait for a close above $262 before entering.Volatility on the Horizon

The next 48 hours will test AAPL’s resolve. A break above $262 could trigger a rally toward $275, fueled by call buying and AI optimism. But a drop below $258.03 (intraday low) would validate the bearish block trade and send the stock toward $250–$245. Either way, the options market is pricing in a directional move—now it’s about timing and execution. Stay nimble, and watch those key levels like a hawk.