AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Focus on $280 Calls as RSI Hits Oversold Levels

• AAPL trades at $271.14, clinging to its 200D MA of $230.07 but squeezed near Bollinger Bands' lower bound at $269.44.
• Options market shows 0.67 put/call OI ratio, with $280 calls (OI: 27,214) and $300 calls (OI: 13,076) as top contenders for Friday's expiry.
• Block trades reveal a $431K buy of AAPL20251017C240 calls and a $1.9M put sale cluster at $255, hinting at mixed institutional positioning.

Here's the takeaway: AAPL is perched on a technical rebound trigger. The RSI at 17.73 screams oversold, while the MACD histogram (-1.46) shows bearish momentum fading. But don't ignore the 30D support zone at $278.61–279.01 looming like a gravity well. This isn't just noise—it's a setup.

"Call Overload" at Key Strikes

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday's expiry, $280 calls (OI: 27,214) and $275 calls (OI: 36,565) dominate, suggesting smart money is hedging a bounce off the lower Bollinger band. Contrast that with puts: $260 puts (OI: 9,813) and $265 puts (OI: 6,306) show minimal downside prep. It's like watching a crowd rush to buy life jackets before a storm—except the storm might not materialize.

Block trades add intrigue. The AAPL20251017C240 call purchase for $431K (expiring Oct 17) hints at a long-term bullish bet. Meanwhile, two $478K put sales at AAPL20250919P255 (expiring Sept 19) suggest short-term sellers are confident in the stock's floor. But watch the $265–267.5 range: if price breaks below that, the 200D MA becomes a real threat.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Apple's legal win in the Epic case is a mixed bag. While the appellate court gave it a partial victory, the ongoing injunction keeps the App Store under a cloud. Tim Cook's lobbying against the Accountability Act adds another layer of regulatory risk. Yet analysts are still penciling in a $283.92 average price target—$12.78 above current levels. The insider selling (especially Cook's $33.4M dump) could pressure the stock short-term, but institutional buyers are clearly eyeing the $275–285 range as a value zone.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders: Buy AAPL20251226C275 calls (strike: $275, expiry: Dec 26) if price breaks above $277.49 (middle Bollinger band). The RSI suggests a rebound is overdue, and the 30D support at $278.61 could act as a catalyst. For downside protection: Buy AAPL20260102P265 puts (strike: $265, expiry: Jan 2) if the stock dips below $269.56 (intraday low). This gives you a buffer before hitting critical support.

Stock traders: Consider entries near $271.14 if the price holds above $269.56. First target: $278.61 (30D support). Second target: $285 (Bollinger upper band). Place a stop-loss below $269.44 (lower Bollinger band) to protect against a breakdown. For aggressive players, a breakout above $277.50 could trigger a rally toward $285–290.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test AAPL's resolve. A close above $277.50 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $269.44 could reignite the bearish trend. The options market is pricing in a 68% probability of staying above $265 (based on 20D IV), but don't forget—legal risks and insider selling could create sudden turbulence. Stay nimble. This isn't just a technical play; it's a chess match between fundamentals and sentiment.