AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Focus on $280 Calls as AI Hype and Legal Shifts Drive Positioning

• Current Price Action: AAPL trades at $272.41, down 0.25% from its 52-week high of $273.68, but remains above all major moving averages.
• Options Surge: 43.4M contracts traded, with calls dominating (put/call ratio: 0.68), and heavy open interest at $280 calls.
• Analyst Consensus: Wedbush and Goldman Sachs reiterate "buy" ratings, with a $350 price target, citing AI-driven growth.

Here’s the core insight: The options market is pricing in a near-term bullish bias, with heavy call buying at $280 and $275 strikes. But legal risks from the Epic Games case could create volatility—positioning now hinges on balancing AI optimism with near-term uncertainty.Bullish Pressure at $280, But Puts Signal Caution

The options chain tells a clear story: AAPL20260102C280 and AAPL20260102C275 options dominate this Friday’s open interest, with 36,317 and 25,986 contracts outstanding. This suggests institutional money is hedging for a $280+ move by early January. Yet the put/call ratio (0.68) isn’t extreme—investors aren’t panicking, just strategically positioning.

But don’t ignore the puts: AAPL20260102P272.5 and AAPL20260102P270 have 9,043 and 9,026 contracts open. These strikes align with AAPL’s 30-day support zone (273.43–273.83), meaning traders are bracing for a pullback if the stock dips below $272.50.

Block trades add intrigue. A 880-lot AAPL20251017C240 call purchase (expiring Oct 17) and a 600-lot AAPL20250926P235 put buy hint at mixed strategies. The call block suggests long-term bullishness, while the put block could signal hedging ahead of the Epic Games appeal.

Legal Uncertainty vs. AI Optimism: Which Wins?

The 9th Circuit’s partial reversal in the Epic case is a wildcard. While it weakens Apple’s App Store control, analysts argue the ruling isn’t a death knell. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, frames Apple’s AI integration as a "sleeper"—a slow burn that avoids costly overhauls while boosting device sales and services revenue.

But here’s the catch: If the court forces deeper App Store changes, puts like AAPL20260109P265 (3,006 OI) could see action. Conversely, AI hype and Wedbush’s $350 target justify the call-heavy positioning. The key is timing—legal risks are short-term, while AI growth is a 2026 story.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Conviction, Stock for Breakouts

• Options Play: Buy AAPL20260109C280 (next Friday’s $280 call) at $1.20–$1.30. Rationale: High OI, alignment with Wedbush’s AI thesis, and a potential bounce off the 30-day support at $273.43. Target: $2.50 if AAPL breaks above $280.
• Stock Play: Enter AAPL near $273.43 (30-day support) with a stop below $267.88 (lower Bollinger Band). Target: $284.50 (upper Bollinger Band) if the 200-day MA (231.46) continues to act as a floor.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test AAPL’s resolve. A break above $280 could trigger a rally toward $300, fueled by AI optimism and Wedbush’s price target. But a drop below $267.88 would validate the puts and force a reevaluation of the long-term bullish case. For now, the options market is betting on resilience—your move is to decide whether to join the call buyers or hedge with the puts.