AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $300 Dominate as AI Hype Fuels Long-Term Optimism

• Options data shows a 70% call skew, with massive open interest at the $300 strike for next Friday.
• Block trades hint at big money positioning, including a 880-lot call buy at $240 expiring Oct 17.
• Analysts just raised price targets to $350, citing AI monetization potential adding $75–$100/share.
• Technical setup is mixed: short-term bearish but long-term bullish with key support at $211–$269.

Here’s what’s happening: The options market is clearly leaning bullish, but the stock’s 0.27% dip today shows near-term jitters. Let’s break down why this could be a setup for a breakout—or a trap for overeager bulls.

Bullish Calls at $300 vs Bearish Puts at $230: What’s the Play?

The next Friday options chain tells a story. Calls at $300 (OI: 47,172) dwarf puts at $230 (OI: 22,507), signaling heavy conviction in a rally. But don’t ignore the puts: that $230 strike has 22,507 contracts open, implying some big players are hedging for a worst-case scenario.

Block trades add intrigue. A 880-lot buy of the AAPL20251017C240 call (expiring Oct 17) suggests institutional players are locking in leverage on the October expiration. Meanwhile, two $255 put trades on Sept 19 (totaling 500 contracts) hint at lingering caution. The message? Big money is hedging downside risk while betting on AI-driven upside.

AI Hype Justifies the Bull Case—But Can It Stick?

Wedbush’s Dan Ives and Evercore’s Amit Daryanani aren’t just throwing numbers around. They’re pointing to concrete catalysts:

• iPhone 17 sales surging in China,
• Siri 2.0 relaunch in early 2026,
• AI-as-a-Service monetization via Gemini/ChatGPT partnerships.

But here’s the catch: AI optimism has already inflated call premiums. The $300 strike is 8.2% out of the money—buying that now requires conviction. Retail traders might get burned if the stock stumbles before October. Yet, with the 200-day MA at $228 and Bollinger Bands widening, the long-term chart still screams "buy the dip" for patient investors.

Actionable Trades: Calls, Puts, and Precision Entries

For options players:

• Aggressive play: Buy AAPL20251219C300 (next Friday’s $300 call). If Apple holds above $277.5 (lower Bollinger Band), this could catch a pop.
• Conservative hedge: Sell a put spread at $270–$277.5 (use the $270 put OI: 7,704 and $277.5 put OI: 4,550).

For stock traders:

• Entry near $269.36 (30D support). If AAPL breaks above $279.67 (intraday high), target $285–$290.
• Stop-loss below $262.83 (lower Bollinger Band) to protect against a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Technical Realism

The next two weeks will test this setup. If Apple’s AI roadmap translates to real revenue (as analysts claim), the $300 call could become a bargain. But watch that RSI at 58.9—it’s not screaming oversold. A pullback to the 200-day MA ($228) would be brutal for overbought longs.

Bottom line: This isn’t a "buy and forget" trade. It’s a high-conviction bet on AI monetization, with technicals acting as both a safety net and a launchpad. Stay nimble, and let the options market’s call/put imbalance guide your risk tolerance.