AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $290–$300 Dominate as Analysts Target $350—Here’s How to Play It

• AAPL trades at $278.66, up 0.23% with volume surging to 17.8M shares.
• Call open interest spikes at $290 (39,510 contracts) and $300 (48,060 next Friday), while puts cluster at $270–$275.
• Analysts like Wedbush ($350) and Citigroup ($330) back Apple’s 2026 potential despite valuation concerns.

The options market is whispering a clear message: bulls are stacking up for a breakout. With a put/call ratio of 0.697 (calls dominate) and heavy open interest at $290–$300 calls, traders are pricing in a strong push higher. But here’s the twist—block trades hint at hidden risks. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Calls vs. Defensive Puts: What the Options Are Saying

The call-heavy setup is striking. For this Friday’s expirations, $290 calls (OI: 39,510) and $280 calls (OI: 36,748) lead the pack. Next Friday’s $300 calls (OI: 48,060) are even more eye-catching. This suggests institutional money is betting on a sharp rally—likely tied to Apple’s Q1 2026 earnings optimism and iPhone 17 momentum.

But don’t ignore the puts. $270–$275 puts (OI: 10,244–7,803) act as a floor for risk-managers. The real wildcard? Block trades. A 880-lot buy of AAPL20251017C240 (October 17 expiring $240 calls) and a 600-lot buy of AAPL20250926P235 (September 26 expiring $235 puts) signal mixed signals—some are hedging a deep pullback, while others are aggressively bullish on the October expiration.

News Flow: Fuel for the Fire or a Speed Bump?

Apple’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The legal win against Epic Games is a relief, but Buffett’s Berkshire selling $10.6B in shares raises red flags. Here’s what matters:

• Bull Case: Analysts raised price targets to $330–$350, citing Services growth (up 14% YoY) and iPhone 17 adoption. The M5 MacBook Pro’s 12% market share gain is a quiet win.
• Bear Case: AI lags behind Microsoft/Amazon and a 8.97X forward P/S (vs. sector 6.82X) make some analysts uneasy. Buffett’s exit? A cautionary tale.

The key is balance. While Services and buybacks are stabilizers, AI competition and valuation stretch could cap upside unless earnings blow past $2.65 estimates.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Safety Net

For options traders, the $290 and $300 calls are the stars. If AAPL breaks above its intraday high of $279.22, consider:

• AAPL20251219C290 (Dec 19 $290 call): A bold play if the stock surges past $280. Use a tight stop below $276.82 (intraday low).
• AAPL20251219C300 (Dec 19 $300 call): For those wanting to ride a bigger move. Needs a strong close above $285 to justify.

For stock buyers, watch the Bollinger Bands. A close above $287.44 (upper band) could trigger a run to $295. If it dips below $276.03 (middle band), consider a $275 put (OI: 6,891) for downside protection.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Apple’s setup is a classic tug-of-war. The options market is pricing in a $290+ move, but Buffett’s exit and AI doubts mean volatility isn’t free. Here’s the plan:

• Bullish Play: Buy AAPL20251219C290 if price holds above $279.22. Target $295, stop at $276.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy AAPL20251219P275 if price drops below $276.03. Target $270, stop at $279.

The bottom line? Apple’s fundamentals are solid, but the stock isn’t cheap. Use options to leverage the bullish case while hedging with puts. If the $290 call chain is right, this could be a holiday rally to remember.