AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias at $300 Strike: Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• Apple (AAPL) trades at $277.56, down 0.44% with volume surging to 13.3 million shares.
• Options market shows call open interest dominance (338,856 vs. 236,529 puts), with heavy call OI at $300 and $305 strikes.
• Block trades hint at institutional bets: 880 calls bought at $240 strike (exp 10/17) and 600 puts bought at $235 (exp 9/26).

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war: technicals hint at short-term weakness but long-term bullish momentum, while options data screams for a rally above $280. Let’s break down why this $300 call wall could be your next setup.The Options Imbalance: Bulls Have the Upper Hand

The options market isn’t just betting on AAPL—it’s betting big on a rebound. For Friday’s expirations, the $290 call (OI: 43,306) and $300 call (OI: 48,967 next week) dominate the call side, while puts are clustered at extreme strikes like $200 (OI: 21,604). This isn’t a random spread—it’s a signal. Traders are pricing in a high-probability move above $280, with heavy call OI acting as a magnet.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $230 put (OI: 22,537) and $200 put (OI: 21,604) suggest some dark-horse bearish bets. These strikes are 15%+ below current price, so they’re more about hedging catastrophic downside than a near-term short trade. Still, the put/call ratio of 0.698 (calls > puts) tells us bulls are in control.

Block trades add intrigue. The AAPL20251017C240 call (880 contracts bought) and AAPL20250926P235 put (600 contracts bought) show big players hedging or scaling positions. The call buy at $240 (way OTM) implies confidence in a rally, while the put buy at $235 hints at caution. It’s a mixed message—but one that favors volatility.

News Flow: Neutral Outlook vs. Long-Term Conviction

UBS’s $280 price target and Jim Cramer’s bullish commentary align with the options’ optimism. The App Store’s slowing growth (6% YoY in November) is a near-term headwind, but Cramer’s defense of AAPL’s resilience since September 2025 suggests the long game remains intact.

The lobbying battle over age verification laws adds noise. While Apple’s privacy stance is defensible, regulatory shifts could disrupt App Store revenue. This uncertainty explains why puts at $270–$275 (closer to current price) have decent OI. Investors are hedging against near-term dips tied to news cycles.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Conviction, Puts for ProtectionFor options traders:

• Bullish play: Buy the AAPL20251219C280 call (next Friday’s expiry). With AAPL near $277.56, a rebound to $280 would test the 30D support/resistance zone (278.61–279.01). If it breaks through, the $280 call could gain steam.
• Bearish hedge: A put spread using AAPL20251219P270 (OI: 10,851) and AAPL20251219P265 (OI: 17,391) caps risk while insuring against a drop below Bollinger Band’s lower bound ($264.38).

For stock traders:

• Entry near $273.81 (intraday low) if the price holds above the 200D MA ($228.62). Target zones: $280 (immediate resistance) and $287.5 (call-heavy zone).
• Stop-loss below $270 to avoid triggering the put-heavy OI at that level.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Regulatory Noise

AAPL’s technicals and options data point to a breakout above $280 as the key catalyst. The RSI at 65.55 and MACD histogram (-0.57) suggest momentum is waning in the short term, but the 30D MA ($273.99) and long-term bullish trend (200D MA at $228.62) remain intact.

The App Store debate adds a wildcard. If regulators force age verification changes, it could pressure near-term revenue. But for now, the market is pricing in a rally. Your best bet? Ride the $280 call wall if AAPL reclaims its 30D support, while hedging with the $270 put. This isn’t a sure thing—but it’s a calculated bet on a stock that’s still got legs.