AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias at $300 Strike—Here’s How to Play the Upcoming Volatility

• AAPL trades at $277.48, down 0.47% with volume surging to 14.85M shares.
• Options market shows 0.70 call/put open interest imbalance, with heavy call OI at $300 and puts at $230.
• Block trades hint at institutional positioning: 880K call buys at $240 and 250K put trades at $255.

Look at the numbers, and it’s clear: the options market is leaning bullish for Apple—but with a twist. While call open interest dominates, the positioning isn’t uniform. The key lies in where the money’s flowing—and where it’s avoiding. Today’s price action, coupled with UBS’s neutral stance and block trade clues, sets up a high-probability trade. Let’s break it down.

Where the Money’s Flowing: Calls at $300, Puts at $230

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday’s expiring contracts, the top call OI sits at $290 ($43,306 open interest) and $280 ($26,359). But the real standout? Next Friday’s $300 call ($48,967 OI), where traders are betting on a 7.7% move above current levels. Meanwhile, puts are clustered at $270 ($10,851 OI) and a jaw-dropping $230 ($22,537 OI next Friday).

This isn’t just noise. The $300 call suggests institutional players are hedging against a rally, while the $230 put—way below current support—hints at deep bearish conviction. The block trades back this up: 880K calls bought at $240 (expiring Oct 17) and 250K puts traded at $255 (Sep 19). It’s a split: some see a rebound, others a breakdown.

UBS’s Neutral Call: A Headwind or a Floor?

UBS’s repeated “Neutral” rating on AAPL ($280 target) lines up with the stock’s 30-day support/resistance range of $278.61–$279.01. The firm’s concern? App Store growth slowing to 6% YoY in November, with FX headwinds looming. But here’s the catch: consumer interest in Apple Intelligence and foldables is rising.

The market’s pricing in this duality. The $280 call/put balance reflects a stock stuck between UBS’s $280 target and the $275.80 middle Bollinger Band. If App Store growth stabilizes—or if foldable hype kicks in—AAPL could snap above $280. But if UBS’s 12% growth hurdle for December falls flat, the $264.38 lower band becomes a critical line.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $290, Puts at $270, or a Core Position

For options traders, the most attractive setup is the AAPL20251219C290 call (expiring Dec 19). Why? The $290 strike is just 4.5% above current price, but with 8 days to expiry, it offers leverage if AAPL breaks above $280. A tighter play? The AAPL20251219P270 put if you’re hedging a long position—though the 2.4% premium feels overpriced given the stock’s 65.55 RSI (still in neutral territory).

For stock players, the plan is clearer. If AAPL holds above $275.80 (middle Bollinger Band), consider entry near $275.80 with a target at $285. A break below $264.38 (lower band) would flip the script—look to short or buy puts at $262.50 (OI: 4,735).

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for AAPL’s December Move

The next two weeks will test AAPL’s resolve. With UBS’s $280 target sitting just 0.5% above current price and the $300 call OI looming, the stock is primed for a breakout—or breakdown. The options market isn’t screaming “buy the dip” or “sell the rally.” It’s whispering: “Watch the $280 line. That’s where the battle begins.”

Your move? If you’re bullish, load up on the AAPL20251219C290. If you’re cautious, hedge with the AAPL20251219P270. And if you’re a core AAPL investor? Keep an eye on $275.80. That’s the line between calm and chaos.