AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: 300-Call OI Surge and Legal Relief Fuel Q4 Optimism

• AAPL trades at $277.98, down 0.018% with volume at 11.75M shares.
• Options data shows 300-call OI (48,060) and 277.5-put OI (21,503) as key battlegrounds.
• Legal win in Epic Games case and $102.5B Q4 revenue boost sentiment.

Here’s the takeaway: AAPL shows upside potential with a short-term bearish bias clashing against a long-term bullish trend. The options market is pricing in a high-probability move toward $280–$300, while regulatory risks linger below $270. Let’s break it down.

"Call Overload at 300 and Whale Moves Signal Conviction"

The options chain is skewed bullish. For next Friday’s expirations, the AAPL20251219C300 call has 48,060 open contracts—nearly double the 280-call’s 36,287. This suggests institutional players are hedging or speculating on a breakout above $280. Meanwhile, the AAPL20251219P277.5 put (21,503 OI) acts as a floor if the stock stumbles.

Block trades add intrigue. A 880-lot AAPL20251017C240 call was bought for $431,200, hinting at a floor near $240. But the bigger story is the AAPL20251219C300 call: if the stock closes above $290 this week, those contracts could see explosive gains. The risk? A breakdown below $276.82 (intraday low) would validate the puts and trigger a short-term selloff.

"Legal Wins and AI Hype: Why the Options Market is Optimistic"

Apple’s partial victory in the Epic Games case removes a near-term overhang. The court upheld Apple’s App Store policies, which could delay regulatory pressure until 2026. This aligns with the options data—analysts are raising price targets to $330, and the stock’s 47.2% gross margin in Q4 shows resilience.

But don’t ignore the puts. The AAPL20251219P230 (22,531 OI) and AAPL20251219P200 (21,602 OI) suggest some players are hedging against a worst-case scenario. While the stock’s balance sheet is strong ($132B cash), AI integration risks and Chinese competition could pressure shares if earnings miss expectations.

"Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection"

For options:

• Bullish: Buy the AAPL20251219C280 call at $2.50–$3.00. If AAPL closes above $280 this week, the 300-call could surge.
• Bearish: Buy the AAPL20251219P277.5 put at $1.20–$1.50. A drop below $276.82 would validate this trade.

For stock:

• Entry: Consider buying near $276.82 (intraday low) if the 200-day MA ($228.81) holds. Target $280–$285.
• Short: If AAPL breaks below $272.5 (key support), short near $272.5 with a stop at $275.

"Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Legal Risks"

The next 72 hours will test AAPL’s resolve. A close above $280 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $275 could reignite bearish sentiment. The options market is pricing in a 60% chance of a $290+ close by Dec 19—bold, but not impossible. Stay nimble: this stock is dancing on a tightrope between AI optimism and regulatory headwinds.