AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: 300-Call OI Surge and iPhone Sales Hype Setup for Q1 2026 Breakout?

• Apple (AAPL) trades at $273.83, down 1.6% from its 280.02 open—testing 276.30 (Bollinger Middle Band) as key support/resistance.
• Options market shows 0.72 put/call open interest ratio, with 48,497 OI at 300-call (this Friday’s top OTM call) vs. 22,556 OI at 230-put.
• Block trades hint at big money moves: 880 contracts bought in 240-call (exp 10/17) and 600 puts in 235-put (exp 9/26).

Here’s the takeaway: AAPL’s options activity screams bullish bias, with heavy call open interest at 300-strike and iPhone sales optimism fueling a potential rebound. But watch the 273.44 intraday low—it’s a short-term speed bump. Let’s dig into why this stock could punch higher…

What the Options Chain Reveals About Institutional Bets

The 300-call (AAPL20251219C300) dominates this Friday’s open interest, with 48,497 contracts—nearly double the 280-call’s 37,923. That’s not random. Big players are hedging or speculating on a post-earnings pop, especially with Q1 2026 iPhone sales forecasted to grow double-digits. But don’t ignore the 230-put (AAPL20251219P230) at 22,556 OI. It’s a floor—some are betting on a 20% downside, but the 273.44 price floor today suggests that’s a long shot.

Block trades add intrigue. The 880-contract buy in the 240-call (AAPL20251017C240) for $431,200? That’s a bet on a mid-October rebound. Meanwhile, the 600-put purchase in the 235-strike (AAPL20250926P235) hints at caution ahead of September’s expiration. Taken together, these moves suggest big players are preparing for volatility—both up and down—but leaning bullish.

iPhone Sales and Monarch Capital’s Bet: Fuel for the Fire

Apple’s Q4 2025 iPhone sales grew 6.1% YoY, and management is projecting double-digit gains for Q1 2026. That’s not just noise—it’s a catalyst. Combine that with Monarch Capital Management’s 4.6% stake increase (now 3.7% of its portfolio), and you’ve got a recipe for a rally. But here’s the catch: The stock’s 37.2 P/E ratio is still rich. If earnings miss expectations, the 211.10 (200D support) could get ugly. The options market isn’t pricing that in yet, though—calls dominate, and the RSI at 62.90 suggests we’re not in overbought territory.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For the aggressive: Buy the AAPL20251226C290 (290-call expiring 12/26) at $2.85. Why? The 290-strike is just 5% above current price, and if AAPL holds 276.30, this could catch a rebound. Exit at $3.50+ if the stock breaks 285.

For the cautious: Sell the AAPL20251226P270 (270-put) at $1.20. The 270-strike is near the 276.30 middle band, and with 4,495 OI, it’s a liquid play. If AAPL holds above 270, you keep the premium. If it drops below 264.95 (lower Bollinger), cut losses.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $273.44 (intraday low) if support holds. Target $285 (30D resistance) as a first goal. Stop below 270 to protect gains.

Volatility on the Horizon: Navigating AAPL’s Q1 2026 Catalysts

The next two weeks will test AAPL’s resolve. The 273.44 level is critical—break below it, and the 264.95 lower band becomes a new battleground. But if the stock holds, the 290-call and 285-target could be your ticket to Q1 optimism. Remember: The options market isn’t just betting on direction—it’s pricing in confidence. And right now, that confidence is tilted bullish… but not without risks. Stay nimble.