AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias: 300-Call OI Surge and Buffett's Exit Set Up High-Probability Trade

• Current Price Action: AAPL trades at $278.57, up 0.19% with volume at 2.57M shares. Price is testing 30D support/resistance at $278.61–$279.01.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest (3.43M) outpaces puts (2.4M) by 43%, with 300-strike calls leading the charge.
• Key News: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire reduces Apple stake, while UBS flags App Store growth slowdown and AI competition.

Here’s the core insight: The options market is pricing in a bullish bias, with heavy call open interest at $300 strikes and a put/call ratio of 0.7. But Buffett’s exit and insider selling add near-term headwinds. The stock sits at a critical juncture—support at $276.03 (Bollinger Middle Band) and resistance at $279.19 (intraday high) will determine direction.The Options Playbook: Calls vs Puts

Let’s unpack the options data. This Friday’s top OTM calls are clustered between $280 and $290, with AAPL20251219C300 leading at 48,060 open contracts. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players. The 300-strike call is 7.7% out of the money, suggesting a belief in a 10%+ move by December 19.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $230 and $200 puts (next Friday’s top puts) have 22,531 and 21,602 open contracts respectively. That’s a bearish tail, but it’s skewed toward extreme downside scenarios. The 277.5-put (21,503 OI) is more relevant—it’s just 3.5% below current price, hinting at short-term hedging activity.

Block trades add intrigue. A AAPL20251017C240 block trade (880 contracts bought) suggests a bullish bet on October 17 expiration. Meanwhile, two AAPL20250919P255 blocks (totaling 500 puts) hint at September 19 hedging. These moves don’t scream “catastrophe,” but they do signal caution.

News That Could Flip the Script

Warren Buffett’s Apple exit is the big elephant in the room. Berkshire’s 238M shares (21.4% of its portfolio) are now a smaller piece of the puzzle. That’s not a sell signal—it’s a strategic shift—but it does mean reduced institutional support. UBS’s Neutral rating ($280 target) lines up with the 30D support/resistance zone, though its focus on AI competition adds a cloud.

The insider selling ($54.3M in Q4) is another wrinkle. While not panic-worthy, it’s a reminder that even Apple’s leadership isn’t fully committed to the current price. But the AI roadmap—Siri upgrades, Google partnerships—could still drive Services revenue growth. The DCF analysis ($110 intrinsic value vs $284 price) is a red flag, but Apple’s moat and cash reserves ($54.7B) can’t be ignored.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders, the AAPL20251219C280 (280-strike call, 36,287 OI) is a sweet spot. It’s 4.5% out of the money, with a balance between cost and reward. If AAPL breaks above $279.19 (intraday high), this call could gain steam. For a longer-term play, the AAPL20251219C300 offers higher leverage but requires a bigger move.

Stock traders should watch two levels:

• Entry: Consider buying near $276.03 (Bollinger Middle Band) if support holds.
• Target: Aim for $285 (30D upper Bollinger Band) as a first target.
• Stop: Exit below $272.50 (272.5-put OI zone) to protect gains.

A bearish counterplay: Sell the AAPL20251219P277.5 (21,503 OI) if AAPL dips below $276.82 (intraday low). It’s a 3.5% downside scenario that aligns with the puts’ heavy open interest.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be telling. If AAPL holds above $276.03, the 280-call and 285-call options could see a surge. But a break below $272.50 would validate the puts’ bearish case. Either way, the options market is pricing in a directional move—now it’s up to the fundamentals to decide which way the needle swings. Stay close to the 30D support/resistance zone and watch for any follow-through in Buffett’s exit or AI updates. This stock isn’t sleeping.