AAPL Options Signal Bullish Bias as $275 Call OI Surges: Here’s How to Play the Upcoming Breakout

• Apple (AAPL) trades at $274.49, up 0.25% with volume at 7.3M—well below its 30-day average.
• Options market shows 32,396 open contracts at the $275 call (this Friday’s expiry) and 16,548 at $280 (next Friday), vs. 14,375 puts at $270.
• Recent news: China’s iPhone demand rebound + U.S. court greenlight for Apple Watch imports.

Here’s the takeaway: AAPL is perched at a crossroads. The options market is betting on a near-term rebound, but technicals hint at a tug-of-war between short-term bears and long-term bulls. Let’s break it down.

The Call-Put Imbalance and Whale Moves Point to a Bullish Tilt

The options chain is telling a story. For this Friday’s expiry, the $275 call (AAPL20251226C275) and $280 call (AAPL20251226C280) dominate open interest, while puts cluster at $270 (AAPL20251226P270). The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.67—a clear edge to bullish positioning. But here’s the twist: block trades show big players hedging. A 880-lot buy of the $240 call (AAPL20251017C240) and a 600-lot put purchase (AAPL20250926P235) suggest some are prepping for volatility swings.

News Flow Fuels the Bull Case—But Don’t Ignore the Risks

The China smartphone rebound and Apple Watch court win are no small potatoes. A 128% YoY jump in iPhone shipments there? That’s a tailwind for Q4 guidance. Plus, the patent dispute delay eases near-term pressure on wearables. But here’s the catch: the RSI at 33.54 screams oversold, and the MACD histogram (-1.14) hints momentum is fading. If the stock can’t break above its 30-day MA ($275.20), the long-term bullish trend (200D MA at $230.56) might falter.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Safety Net

For options traders: Buy the AAPL20251226C275 or AAPL20250102C280 if AAPL holds above $273.43 (30D support). Why? The $275 strike aligns with the 30D MA and Bollinger Middle Band ($277.15). A close above $275.37 (intraday high) could trigger a rally toward $285. For risk management, consider a call spread—sell the $290 call (AAPL20251226C290) to cap costs.

Stock traders: Enter near $274.49 if AAPL holds above $273.43. Target $280–$285 if the 30D MA is breached. Stop-loss below $270.50 (Bollinger Lower Band at $268.66) would protect against a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

The next 72 hours will test AAPL’s resolve. A break above $277.15 (Bollinger Middle Band) could reignite the long-term bullish trend. But don’t ignore the RSI’s oversold grip—prices could snap back violently. The key is to stay nimble. If the $275 call OI surges further, it’s a green light. If puts at $270 gain traction, tighten your stops. Either way, the options market has handed us a roadmap—now it’s time to follow it.