AAPL Options Signal $300 Call Wall as AI Hype and Whale Buys Fuel Breakout Potential – Here’s How to Play It

• AAPL trades at $279.00, up 0.4% with volume surging past 3.6M shares.
• Call open interest dominates at $300 strikes (48K contracts), while deep puts at $200+ hint at extreme downside speculation.
• Dan Ives just raised his price target to $350, citing AI partnerships and iPhone 17 demand in China.

Here’s the takeaway: options data and technicals align on a bullish bias, but with a warning label. The market is pricing in a $300+ move by December 19th—if Apple holds above $268 support. Let’s break down why this matters for your portfolio.

Bullish Call Wall at $300 vs Deep Put Bets: What Traders Are Really Saying

The options chain tells two stories. First, AAPL20251219C300 (48K open interest) and AAPL20251219C305 (36K OI) show heavy money betting on a 7.5%+ pop by next Friday. That’s not just retail FOMO—block trades like AAPL20251017C240 (880 contracts bought for $431K) suggest institutional players are stacking up cheap leverage ahead of the AI hype cycle.

But don’t ignore the puts. AAPL20251219P200 (21K OI) and AAPL20251219P195 (16K OI) are 15% OTM and deeper. These aren’t typical hedging plays—this is speculative bearishness from traders expecting a catastrophic drop. The 0.7 Put/Call ratio (using open interest) confirms calls are winning the war, but the depth of put buying adds a risk layer.

AI News and Earnings: Fuel or Fizzle for the Bull Case?

Analysts are all-in on Apple’s AI narrative. Dan Ives’ $350 target and Wedbush’s $325 upgrade align with options data. But here’s the catch: China regulatory delays for AI features could slow monetization. That’s why insider selling (35 execs dumped shares) and Buffett’s 15% stake cut in Q3 matter—they reflect real-world caution.

The stock’s 33x forward P/E premium to peers isn’t sustainable forever. If AI rollout stumbles, the market could yank the rug. But for now, iPhone 17 demand and AI hype are keeping the bid in place.

3 Specific Trades to Consider Today

1. Options Play: Buy AAPL20251212C290 (strike price $290, expiring Friday). Why? It’s 4.3% OTM at $279, with 26K open interest. If Apple cracks $285 (Bollinger Upper Band at $286.88), this call could pop 20%+ in a day. Stop if price falters below $277.50 (key support level).

1. Options Play: Sell AAPL20251219P277.5 (5774 OI this week, 20802 OI next week). The puts at $277.5 are 0.7% OTM—unlikely to touch unless a black swan hits. Collect premium while riding the long-term bullish trend.

1. Stock Play: Buy AAPL near $268.24 (30D support). If price holds here, target $285 (Bollinger Upper Band) or $280.03 (intraday high). Exit if it breaks below $263.60 (lower band) or hits 30D MA at $273.38.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch Next

The next 10 days will test Apple’s resolve. A close above $285 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $268 could trigger a retest of the 200D MA at $228.31. Key catalysts:

• December 19th options expiration (massive call wall at $300)
• January 2026 earnings (estimates up 11.8% to $9.08/share)
• China AI regulatory updates (could accelerate or derail the AI narrative)

This isn’t a binary bet. The market is pricing in a $300+ move, but the path matters. Stay nimble—options give you flexibility to ride the wave or hedge the fall. And remember: the bulls have the edge, but the puts at $200 are there for a reason. Trade with a plan, and keep your stops tight.