AAPL Options Signal $300 Bullish Bet as AI Hype and Block Trades Heat Up

• Apple trades -0.8% at $276.52, pressured by short-term bearish momentum but clings to long-term bullish trends.
• Call open interest crushes puts 3:2, with heavy bets at $300 and $305 strikes for next Friday’s expiry.
• Block trades hint at big money moves: 880 calls bought at $240 and 600 puts snapped up at $235 ahead of September expiry.

Here’s the core insight: Options market sentiment is split between cautious near-term bears and aggressive long-term bulls eyeing AI-driven gains. The stock’s current pullback to $276.52—just below its 30-day moving average—creates a high-probability entry zone for traders who believe in Dan Ives’ $350 price target.Bullish Whales Are Betting on $300+

Let’s start with the options data. This Friday’s expiring calls show heavy open interest at $280–$290 strikes, but next Friday’s chain is where the action is: AAPL20251219C300 (OI: 47,172) and AAPL20251219C305 (OI: 36,668) dominate. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence in Apple’s AI monetization potential. Meanwhile, puts are skewed to extreme downside bets, with AAPL20251219P230 (OI: 22,507) and AAPL20251219P200 (OI: 21,635) showing panic at lower levels. The block trades add intrigue: 880 AAPL20251017C240 calls were bought, and 600 AAPL20250926P235 puts were snapped up. Think of it like this—smart money is hedging near-term risks while stacking up for a 2026 AI breakout.

AI Hype vs. Real-World Risks

Dan Ives’ $350 target isn’t just a number—it’s a signal that Wall Street sees Apple’s AI-as-a-Service and Gemini partnership as revenue accelerants. Johny Srouji staying at Apple? That’s a green light for chip innovation. But don’t ignore the red flags: regulatory headwinds in China and delayed AI approvals could slow momentum. The stock’s technical setup reflects this tension. It’s testing the $270–$266 support zone (Bollinger Band lower bound at $262.83) while RSI (58.9) suggests neither overbought nor oversold extremes. The key question: Will the $279.67 intraday high hold, or will bears drag it below $269.36 (30-day support)?

Trade Ideas: Calls for AI Optimists, Puts for Cautious Bears

• Bullish Play: Buy AAPL20251219C280 (next Friday expiry) if AAPL breaks above $279.67. Target: $290. Why? The $280 strike is a liquidity magnet (OI: 29,346) and sits just below the 52-week high mentioned in technical analysis.
• Bearish Play: Sell AAPL20251219P270 (next Friday expiry) if AAPL dips below $274.77 (middle Bollinger Band). Target: $265. Why? The $270 put has 20,884 OI and could see demand if the stock tests lower support.
• Stock Entry: Consider buying near $274.77 if the 30-day moving average holds. Exit at $280 or hold for the $288 resistance level (per Wedbush’s Ives).

Volatility on the Horizon

Apple’s options market is a chessboard of conflicting signals. The short-term technicals warn of a possible pullback to $262.83, but the long-term fundamentals—AI monetization, strong iPhone sales, and Srouji’s leadership—point to a $300+ rally by year-end. Traders need to decide: Are they betting on the AI-driven bull case, or hedging against a near-term dip? Either way, the next 72 hours will test whether $276.52 is a buying opportunity or a warning sign. Keep an eye on the FOMC rate decision too—it could be the catalyst that tips the scales.