AAPL Options Signal $290 Bullish Bias: How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound with Calls and Puts

• Retail investors sold $96M in AAPL during Thanksgiving week, but CLSA just raised its price target to $330
• Options market shows 0.68 put/call OI ratio, with heavy call OI at $287.5 and $290 strikes
• Block trades hint at mixed positioning: 880 calls bought at $240 strike, while 600 puts were snapped up at $235

Here’s the thing: Apple’s options market is whispering a story of cautious optimism. While retail traders are skittish, institutional money is stacking up for a rebound. Let’s break down why the $290 level is becoming a magnet—and how to position for it.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Calls at $290, Puts at $270

The options chain tells a clear tale. This Friday’s expiring calls have 55,817 contracts open at the $287.5 strike and 38,699 at $290—strikes that would profit if Apple shakes off its 0.6% dip and surges toward CLSA’s $330 target. Meanwhile, puts at $270 and $275 have 5,903 and 11,380 OI respectively, suggesting some hedging against a drop below the 30D support at $269.69.

But here’s the twist: Block trades reveal a split. On Oct 17, 880 calls at $240 were bought (a deep-in-the-money strike), while 600 puts at $235 were purchased. This hints at big players either hedging long positions or setting up for a volatility play. The $290 call OI is the real standout—it’s the closest strike to CLSA’s $330 target without being overpriced.

News That Could Fuel the Fire

Apple’s iPhone 17 dominance and record Services revenue are real tailwinds. Counterpoint’s forecast of a 2025 smartphone crown and CLSA’s $330 target aren’t just numbers—they’re signals that the market is starting to forgive Apple’s AI lag. But don’t ignore the retail outflows: Schwab’s Q3 data shows small traders are net sellers. This creates a tug-of-war—big money bets on AI-driven growth, while retail traders price in short-term skepticism.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For the bullish: Buy AAPL20251212C2875 (next Friday’s $287.5 call). If Apple breaks above today’s intraday high of $281.14, this strike could catch momentum. Target: $290 (current OI hotspot) to $300 (CLSA’s 35x P/E math). Stop-loss: below $278.79 intraday low.

For the cautious: Buy AAPL20251212P270 (next Friday’s $270 put). If the 200D support at $211.10 starts to crumble, this strike offers downside protection without overpaying. Watch the 30D support at $269.69—break below that, and the put gains value.

Stock play: Consider entries near $274.32 (middle Bollinger Band) if Apple consolidates. Target: $286.30 (upper band) to $290. Exit if it stalls at $278.79.

Volatility on the Horizon

Apple isn’t standing still. The options market’s 0.68 put/call OI ratio (calls dominate) suggests a bias for higher prices, but the block trades show no consensus. My read? The $290 call OI and CLSA’s upgrade are stronger signals than retail outflows. That said, don’t ignore the $270 put OI—it’s a reminder that AI competition from Microsoft or Alphabet could shake things up. Play the trend, but keep a tight stop.

Bottom line: This is a stock at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a rebound, but execution will make or break it. If Apple’s AI roadmap gets clearer in Q4, the $290–$300 range could be the new floor. For now, the calls at $287.5 and puts at $270 are your best bets to ride—or hedge—the ride.