AAPL Options Signal $290 Bull Case: How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound with Calls and Puts

• AAPL trades at $279.13, down 0.56% from its 2025 high of $281.14.
• Call open interest dominates at $287.5 (55,817 contracts) and $290 (38,699) for Friday expiration.
• CLSA just raised its price target to $330, citing iPhone 17 demand and AI integration plans.

The options market is whispering a bullish story. With call open interest outpacing puts 3:2 and heavy positioning at $287.5–$290, traders are pricing in a potential breakout. But here’s the twist: the RSI at 61.27 and Bollinger Bands suggest the stock is testing key support/resistance zones. Let’s unpack what this means for your portfolio.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The call/put open interest ratio of 0.68 tells us institutional players are leaning bullish. For Friday expiration, the $287.5 call (55,817 OI) and $290 call (38,699 OI) are the most watched strikes. This suggests a target of $287.5–$290 if the stock breaks above its 2025 high of $281.14. Conversely, the $275 put (11,914 OI) and $270 put (5,903 OI) indicate a defensive stance below $274.32 (middle Bollinger Band).

Block trades add intrigue. A $478,750 put block at $255 (expiring 9/19) hints at hedging by large players, while a $431,200 call block at $240 (10/17) shows accumulation. The most telling move? A $192,000 put block at $235 (9/26)—a bearish signal that contrasts with the overall bullish options flow.

News That Could Fuel or Hinder the Bull Case

CLSA’s $330 price target is a game-changer. With iPhone 17 demand pushing 2025 shipments to 247 million units, Apple’s ecosystem strength is undeniable. But here’s the catch: retail investors are net sellers, and the stock’s 12% YTD return lags the S&P 500. The AI chief’s exit and cautious AI strategy raise questions about catching up to rivals like Nvidia. Prediction markets give Tim Cook an 18% chance of stepping down by March 2026, which could shake investor confidence.

Actionable Trade Ideas for Today

1. Bull Call Spread (Friday Expiration): Buy the AAPL20251212C2875 at $287.5 (OI: 22,597) and sell the AAPL20251212C290 to cap risk. If AAPL closes above $287.5 by 12/12, you lock in gains as the stock targets $290.
2. Put Hedge (Next Friday Expiration): Buy the AAPL20251212P275 at $275 (OI: 3,954) to protect against a pullback below $274.32. This works if the RSI dips below 50 or volume spikes south.
3. Stock Entry Play: Consider buying AAPL near $274.32 (middle Bollinger Band) if it holds above $269.69 (30D support). Target $286.30 (upper Bollinger Band) with a stop below $262.33 (lower band).

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test AAPL’s resolve. A break above $281.14 could trigger a rush to the $287.5–$290 calls, while a close below $278.05 (intraday low) might force a reevaluation of the bullish case. CLSA’s $330 target isn’t out of reach, but it requires the stock to hold its 200D support at $211.10 and execute its AI roadmap flawlessly. For now, the options market is pricing in a $290 near-term target—take notes before the Friday expiration frenzy.