AAPL Options Signal $290 Bull Case as Call/Put Imbalance Hits 0.64—Here’s How to Play the Breakout

• Apple (AAPL) plunges 4.8% to $262.23, breaking below its 30-day moving average of $263.06.
• Call open interest surges at $290 strike (next Friday expiry) with 47,424 contracts, vs. $230 put OI at 15,267.
• Block trade of 1,000 AAPL20260320C240 contracts hints at long-term bullish positioning.

The market is sending a clear message: big money is betting on a rebound. Despite today’s sharp drop, options data and technicals point to a high-probability upside breakout scenario. Let’s break down why AAPL could test $290+ by next Friday—and how to position for it.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Calls at $290, Puts at $230

The options chain tells a story of asymmetric optimism. For this Friday’s expiry, call open interest peaks at $280 ($27,737) and $285 ($22,144), while next Friday’s $290 strike dominates with 47,424 contracts. That’s not just noise—it’s a wall of capital expecting a rally. Contrast that with puts: the $230 strike (next Friday) has 15,267 OI, but it’s dwarfed by call volume. The 0.64 put/call ratio (open interest) confirms this bullish skew.

But don’t ignore the risks. The RSI at 81.9 suggests overbought conditions, and the price is near the lower Bollinger Band ($240.54). A breakdown below $258 support could trigger panic selling. However, the block trade in AAPL20260320C240—buying 1,000 calls at $240 strike for March expiry—hints smart money sees value here. Think of it like a lifeline: if the stock dips, these calls could act as a floor.

News vs. Options: A Mixed Bag, But AI Still Shines

Today’s plunge isn’t about Apple’s fundamentals—it’s a sector rotation. The market is questioning how long AI spending can sustain megacap valuations, and UBS’s downgrade of tech adds fuel to the fire. But here’s the catch: Apple’s iPhone sales hit a 23% YoY jump in Q1 2026, and its AI roadmap (including Alphabet partnerships) remains intact. The delayed Siri 2.0 launch is a speed bump, not a dead end.

Institutional buying (Rather & Kittrell’s 22.7% stake increase) and a Zacks Momentum Score of A suggest the long-term case is still strong. The key question: Can the stock rebound before the $230 puts (a bearish hedge) start to dominate?

Actionable Trades: Calls at $280, Stock Buy at $250

For options traders: Buy AAPL20260220C280 (next Friday expiry) if the price closes above $262.31 (middle Bollinger Band). The $280 strike is a sweet spot—high enough to profit from a rebound, but not so far out that it’s vulnerable to time decay. Alternatively, AAPL20260220C275 offers cheaper entry with a tighter risk/reward if you’re bullish on a quick bounce.

Stock buyers: Consider entry near $250 if support holds. That’s the upper end of the 200-day range (209.8–211.6), and a break above $262.31 could trigger a run to $280. For a safer play, use a bear put spread with AAPL20260220P260 (10,751 OI) and AAPL20260220P250 (12,877 OI) to cap downside risk while staying in play for a rebound.

Volatility on the Horizon: A Tug-of-War Setup

The next 72 hours will be critical. If AAPL holds above $258, the call-heavy options chain could drive a sharp rebound. But a close below $240.54 (lower Bollinger Band) would validate the puts and force a reevaluation. Either way, the block trade in March 2026 options suggests positioning for a longer-term AI-driven rally. This isn’t just a short-term trade—it’s a setup for a potential $300+ move if the market regains confidence in tech’s growth story.

Bottom line: The options market is pricing in a $290+ target by next Friday. Your job is to decide whether to ride the call wave or hedge with puts. Either way, don’t let today’s drop blind you to the bigger picture—Apple’s AI bets are still on track, and the smart money is already betting on the next leg higher.