AAPL Options Signal $280 Call Dominance: Bullish Breakout Setup Amid AI Partnership Hype

• AAPL trades at $275.27, up 1.07% with volume surging to 11M shares.
• Options call open interest crushes puts (3.1M vs 2.1M contracts), with $280 calls as top contender.
• Block trades hint at big money positioning ahead of 2026 product cycle.

Here’s the takeaway: AAPL’s options market is screaming for a $280+ breakout. With RSI at 24.29 and Bollinger Bands squeezing, the stock is primed to snap out of its short-term bear trap. Let’s break down why this is a high-conviction setup.

The $280 Call Wall and Whale Moves

Options data tells a clear story: 28,509 contracts of AAPL20251226C280 (this Friday’s $280 call) and 13,662 of AAPL20260102C280 (next Friday) show heavy bullish positioning. Meanwhile, puts max out at $270 with 13,281 OI. This 2:1 call/put skew suggests institutional players are hedging for a near-term pop.

But it’s the block trades that catch my eye. A 880-contract AAPL20251017C240 buy (costing $431k) and a 600-contract AAPL20250926P235 put purchase signal big money is stacking both sides of the trade. Think of it like a chess game: they’re betting on a sharp move up while quietly insuring against a dip.

AI Hype vs Reality Check

Dan Ives’ $5T AAPL prediction hinges on a Google partnership, but let’s ground this. The stock’s 2026 product pipeline (foldable iPhone, cheaper MacBooks) could drive service revenue growth. Yet leadership uncertainty (Tim Cook’s potential exit) adds volatility. Here’s the rub: options buyers aren’t pricing in $500+ yet—they’re focused on $280 as a near-term inflection point.

Trade Ideas: Calls, Breakouts, and the $270 Lifeline

For options traders: AAPL20260102C280 is your key play. If AAPL closes above $278.61 (30D resistance) by Friday, this $8523 OI call could ignite. For stock players: enter long near $275 if price holds above the lower Bollinger Band ($268.96). Target $285 (upper band) with a stop at $268.

Bearish hedge? Buy a put spread: AAPL20260102P270 (5165 OI) + sell AAPL20260102P265 to cap risk. This works if earnings or AI partnership news disappoints.

Volatility on the Horizon

AAPL’s at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a 7-10% move by January 2nd, but leadership changes and AI execution risks could shake things up. My bias? The $280 call wall and block trade activity suggest a short-term pop is more likely than a breakdown. But keep an eye on that $270 support level—it’s the last line of defense before the 200D MA ($211). Stay nimble, and let the options flow guide your entries.