AAPL Options Signal $280 Bullish Bias: How to Position for Earnings-Driven Volatility

• AAPL trades at $269.94, down 0.7% from its intraday high of $277.82
• Calls dominate open interest (304K vs. 208K puts), with heavy concentration at $280 and $275 strikes
• Block trades hint at institutional bets: 880 contracts bought in AAPL20251017C240 (October 17 expiring $240 call)

Here’s what’s happening: The options market is pricing in a sharp rebound above $280, but technicals show a fragile setup. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Pressure at $280, But Support Is Fraying

The AAPL20260102C280 call (this Friday’s $280 strike) has 32,852 open contracts—the highest on the board. That’s not just noise: it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players who expect a breakout. But here’s the catch: the RSI at 31.28 screams oversold, and the MACD histogram (-0.71) shows weakening momentum.

Meanwhile, block trades like the 880-contract buy in AAPL20251017C240 (October 17 expiring $240 call) suggest long-term bullish positioning. Yet the $265 put (8,074 OI) acts as a shadow over the rally. If the stock dips below Bollinger Bands’ lower line at $268.42, that put could ignite a short-covering rally.

News Flow: AI & Buybacks Fuel Optimism, EU Fine Adds Noise

Apple’s $90B buyback and Nova AI launch are tailwinds. Analysts peg Nova at $12B in annual revenue—enough to justify a premium. But the $2.5B EU fine introduces regulatory headwinds. Here’s the twist: options traders aren’t pricing in panic. The put/call ratio at 0.68 (calls dominate) suggests investors are hedging for upside, not fleeing.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Safety

• If you’re bullish: Buy AAPL20260102C280 (this Friday’s $280 call) if AAPL closes above $275. Target: $285–$290. Exit if it fails to hold $272.
• If you’re cautious: Buy AAPL20260109P265 (next Friday’s $265 put) as insurance. It’ll profit if AAPL dips below $268.42 (lower Bollinger Band).
• Stock play: Consider entry near $272 (30D support at 271.83–272.23). Target $280 if 200D MA (231.75) continues to act as a floor. Stop below $268.42.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Regulatory Risk

Apple’s fundamentals are rock-solid—$1T cash reserves, $90B buybacks, and a services engine hitting $60B/year. But the EU fine and antitrust risks could create short-term whipsaw. The key is timing: if AAPL holds above its 30D MA ($275.39), the $280 call strikes gain legs. If it cracks $265, the put-heavy OI could spark a rebound. Either way, the options market is pricing a directional move—now it’s about picking the right side of the bet.