AAPL Options Signal $280+ Breakout Potential: Here's How to Position for Q4 Earnings & AI-Driven Rebound

• AAPL trades at $271.35, hovering near its 52-week low but showing early signs of a potential rebound.
• RSI at 17.73 suggests oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands show price is testing the lower bound ($269.44).
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.67 (calls dominate) with heavy call interest at $280 and $300 strikes.

Here’s the thing: Apple’s options market is quietly building a case for a $280+ rebound—driven by technicals, whale trades, and earnings optimism. Let’s break it down.

Bullish OI Clusters and Whale Moves: Why $280–$300 Matters

Options traders are piling into AAPL20260102C280 and AAPL20260102C300 contracts, with 10,771 and 13,076 open interests respectively. This isn’t random—those strikes align with key resistance levels (30D MA at $275.15) and psychological round numbers. The block trades add fuel: a 880-lot call buy at $240 (expiring Oct 17) and a 600-lot put buy at $235 (Sep 26) hint at institutional positioning for volatility.

But don’t ignore the puts. While call dominance is clear, the AAPL20260102P265 contract (4,282 OI) acts as a shadow floor. If the stock stumbles below $269.44 (lower Bollinger Band), that put could see action. The risk? A breakdown below $265 would invalidate the bullish case.

Berkshire’s Pivot and AI Hype: News That Could Shift the Script

Berkshire Hathaway’s potential halt in Apple selling is a game-changer. A $65B position isn’t just a number—it’s a signal. If Greg Abel prioritizes long-term value, Apple’s AI-driven product pipeline (M4 Macs, Vision Pro) could get a tailwind. But watch the other hand: General Partner’s 8.1% stake reduction and insider selling ($58.6M in 90 days) add friction.

Analysts are split. While Morgan Stanley raised its target to $315, the Zacks Consensus Rank still says “Hold.” The key is execution—will Apple’s Q4 earnings (est. $2.65) justify the AI hype, or will component costs and regulatory fines drag results?

Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options traders, the AAPL20260102C280 call is a setup. With 10 days to expiry and the stock near support, a break above $272.5 (current OI at 19,653) could trigger a rush. If you’re bearish but cautious, a bull put spread using AAPL20260102P270 ($3294 OI) and AAPL20260102P265 ($4282 OI) could cap risk while capitalizing on a rebound.

Stock buyers should eye $270.84 (today’s open) as an entry if the price holds above $269.56 (intraday low). First target: $278.61 (30D support/resistance). A close above $280 would validate the bullish case and open the door to $285.54 (upper Bollinger Band).Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

Apple isn’t out of the woods. The RSI needs to cross 30 to confirm oversold relief, and volume must pick up from 3.14M to sustain a move. But the stars are aligning: oversold technicals, bullish OI at key strikes, and a potential Berkshire pivot. This isn’t a “buy and forget” trade—it’s a calculated bet on a rebound.

Bottom line: If you’re in, protect your downside. If you’re on the sidelines, $270–$272 is a make-or-break zone. The next 10 days could define Apple’s 2026 setup.