AAPL Options Signal $270 Bull Call Play Amid Oversold RSI and AI-Driven Earnings Boost

Quick Take

• Apple’s Q4 2025 earnings beat and $90B buyback program are fueling bullish momentum.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $270–$280 strikes ahead of Friday’s expiry.
• RSI at 21.9 suggests oversold conditions, but short-term bearish trends persist.

Here’s the thing: Apple’s stock is dancing on a tightrope. On one hand, the RSI is screaming "buy" at 21.9, and the AI-powered iPhone 16 launch is generating real buzz. On the other, the MACD histogram is negative, and the price is trading below its 30-day moving average. But the options market isn’t confused—it’s leaning hard into calls at $270 and $280. That’s not noise. That’s a signal.

Call OI Clusters at $270–$280 Suggest Institutional Bullishness

Let’s start with the options data. This Friday’s expiration has 92,919 open interest at the $270 call and 68,941 at $280. For context, the next highest call is $310 with 54,998 OI. That’s a huge concentration of bullish bets. Meanwhile, puts are all over the map—$150 and $180 strikes have 63,344 and 61,153 OI respectively, but those are so far out of the money they’re more about tail-risk hedging than active bearishness.

The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.71, which is bearish on the surface. But here’s the twist: most of those puts are at absurdly low strikes ($150–$200). Retail traders might be buying them for protection, but institutions are clearly focused on the $270–$280 range. That’s where the action is.

And there’s no whale activity to muddy the waters. Block trades are quiet today, so we’re looking at a clean read: smart money is betting on a rebound to those key call strikes.

AI Launch and Buybacks Fuel Optimism, But EU Fines Add Near-Term Noise

The news flow is a mixed bag. The iPhone 16’s AI camera and 5G+ features are already driving pre-orders, and the $90B buyback program is a tailwind for the stock. But the EU’s €2.3B fine and China’s antitrust probe could create short-term headwinds. Think of it like this: the AI-driven revenue streams are the engine, but regulatory friction is the brake.

Investor sentiment is split. The JPMorgan upgrade to $220 is a vote of confidence, but the recent 4.2% dip on AI R&D costs shows nerves. The key here is that the options market isn’t pricing in a collapse—it’s pricing in a rebound. The $270–$280 call concentration suggests traders expect Apple to shrug off the EU fine and rally on AI-driven demand.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $270 and $280, Long Stock at $258.96 Support

For options players, the most attractive setup is AAPL20260116C270 (this Friday’s $270 call) and AAPL20260123C270 (next Friday’s same strike). Why? The $270 level is just 4.6% above the current price, and the high open interest means there’s likely liquidity. If Apple cracks $270 by Friday, those calls could see explosive gains. For a longer play, AAPL20260123C275 (next Friday’s $275 call) offers slightly more upside with a 6.3% buffer.

For stock traders, the lower Bollinger Band at $258.96 is a critical support level. If the price holds here, consider entries near $259.41 (today’s open) with a target at $273.70 (30-day moving average resistance). A break below $256.8 intraday low would signal caution, but the RSI suggests a rebound is more likely than a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Regulatory Risks

The next two weeks are pivotal. The iPhone 16’s Q1 revenue potential and AI-driven services growth are tailwinds. But the EU and China regulatory battles could create sharp dips. The options market is already pricing in a $270–$280 rebound, so the key is to ride the momentum while hedging against regulatory noise. If Apple’s stock closes above $273.70 by next Friday, the long-term bullish trend could reignite. If not, the 200-day moving average at $211.10 becomes a critical floor.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction call play for those comfortable with short-term volatility. The AI narrative is strong, the options data is bullish, and the technicals are setting up for a breakout. But don’t ignore the regulatory risks—this isn’t a one-way bet. Stay nimble, and keep an eye on that $270 level.