AAPL Options Signal $270–$300 Bull Case: How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound in 2026

• AAPL trades at $257.89, down 0.57% from its 259.37 close, with RSI at 21.9 (oversold territory) and MACD turning negative.
• Options OI highlights: 92,919 calls at $270 (this Friday’s expiry) and 63,344 puts at $150 (same expiry), signaling a bullish bias.
• Wedbush’s $350 price target hinges on AI partnerships and iPhone 18 hype, but supply chain risks and stagnant growth remain headwinds.

Here’s the thing: Apple’s options market is whispering a story of cautious optimism. The short-term bearish trend clashes with long-term bullish fundamentals, but the OTM call frenzy at $270–$300 suggests traders are pricing in a rebound. Let’s break it down.

Bullish OI at $270–$300 vs. Deep Put Skew: A Battle of Optimism and Fear

The options chain is a split-level drama. For this Friday’s expiry, 92,919 calls at $270 (AAPL20260116C270) and 54,509 calls at $300 (AAPL20260116C300) dominate, while puts cluster at $150–$200. This isn’t just noise—it’s a vote of confidence in Apple’s near-term AI-driven rally. But here’s the catch: the RSI at 21.9 screams oversold, and the Bollinger Bands show the price is clinging to the lower band ($258.96). If the stock can’t break above $260.27 (intraday high), the bullish OI might evaporate.

Block trades are quiet today, so no whale moves to worry about. But the put/call ratio of 0.71 (calls > puts) means the crowd is leaning long. Just don’t ignore the puts at $250–$255 for next Friday (AAPL20260123P250)—they’re a hedge against a breakdown below the 200D MA ($233.12).News Flow: AI Hype vs. Realistic Risks

Wedbush’s Dan Ives is all-in on Apple’s AI pivot, citing a $1B/year Google Gemini partnership and a subscription-driven Siri relaunch. That’s the good news. The bad? Analysts are grumbling about Apple’s "wait-and-see" AI strategy and its 32x forward P/E, which feels rich compared to Nvidia’s 40x.

Here’s the rub: the market’s pricing in a $286.58 fair value (10% upside from current levels), but that assumes Tim Cook’s AI roadmap actually delivers. If the iPhone 18 misses expectations or the Gemini partnership falters, the $250–$255 puts (AAPL20260123P250) could get busy.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Stock for the Patient

• Options Play: Buy AAPL20260116C270 (this Friday’s expiry) if AAPL breaks above $260.27. The $270 strike is a sweet spot—cheap enough to justify (IV crush risk aside) but close to the 30D MA ($273.82). For a longer play, AAPL20260123C275 (next Friday) offers more time if the AI narrative gains steam.
• Stock Play: Consider entry near $258.96 (lower Bollinger Band) with a target at $273.82 (30D MA). A stop below $256.80 (intraday low) would protect against a breakdown.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hope and Real-World Risks

Apple’s story in 2026 hinges on execution. The options market is pricing in a $270–$300 rebound, but the RSI and MACD suggest a bounce could be imminent. That said, the 200D MA at $233.12 is a long way down—and a potential trap for overleveraged longs.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade. If the AI rumors turn real (and the iPhone 18 sells like hotcakes), the $270–$300 calls could run. But if the market loses patience, the puts at $250 will be your lifeline. Stay nimble, and watch that $260.27 level like a hawk.