AAPL Options Signal $270–$280 Bullish Bias: How to Position for AI-Driven Volatility

• Apple (AAPL) trades at $258.28, down 0.42% with volume surging past 5.6M shares.
• Options data shows 92,919 open calls at the $270 strike (Friday expiry) vs. just 37,098 puts at $250.
• RSI at 21.9 suggests oversold conditions, while Wedbush’s $350 price target fuels AI optimism.

Here’s the takeaway: options market sentiment is decisively bullish on a short-term rebound, with heavy call buying at key resistance levels. But technicals warn of a fragile setup—let’s break it down.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Calls at $270–$280 Dominate

The options chain tells a clear story. For Friday expiry (Jan 16), the $270 call (AAPL20260116C270) has 92,919 open contracts—the highest of any strike. That’s 35% more than the next call at $280. Meanwhile, puts are concentrated at extreme downside levels ($150–$250), with no major block trades to suggest panic.

This isn’t just random buying. Traders are pricing in a potential breakout above the 30D moving average ($273.82) and Bollinger Band lower bound ($258.96). The risk? If Apple fails to hold above $256.8 (today’s intraday low), the bearish RSI (21.9) and MACD (-3.3) could trigger a deeper pullback.

News vs. Options: AI Hype Meets Realistic Hurdles

Wedbush’s Daniel Ives is all-in on Apple’s AI narrative, citing a Google Gemini partnership and a revamped Siri as catalysts. But the market isn’t fully buying in yet. The stock’s 32x forward P/E lags Nvidia’s 25x, and recent bearish headlines about supply chain risks and leadership changes add friction.

Here’s the tension: options buyers are betting on Ives’ $350 target, but the technical setup suggests a more measured move. If Apple’s AI roadmap delivers tangible updates in Q1, the $270–$280 calls could explode in value. But a delayed execution or weak Q4 earnings (due Feb 1) might leave these strikes underwater.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Safety

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy AAPL20260116C270 (Friday expiry, $270 strike). Entry ~$1.20, with a target at $2.50 if Apple closes above $273.82 (30D MA).
• Bearish Hedge: Buy AAPL20260123P250 (next Friday expiry, $250 strike) at ~$1.10. Protects against a drop below $256.8.

For stock investors:

• Entry near $258.96 (lower Bollinger Band) with a stop-loss at $255. If Apple holds here, target $270–$273.82.
• Alternative: A bullish call spread using AAPL20260123C275 (next Friday expiry) and AAPL20260123C285 to cap risk while riding a potential AI-driven pop.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

The next two weeks will test Apple’s resolve. A strong AI roadmap announcement at WWDC (June 2026) could validate the $270–$280 call bets, but near-term headwinds like earnings and China supply chain risks remain. The key is to stay nimble—use the current oversold RSI as a buying opportunity, but don’t ignore the bearish MACD divergence.

Bottom line: this is a high-reward, high-risk setup. If you’re bullish on Apple’s AI story, the options market has already priced in a $270+ rebound. But if the stock stumbles below $255, those same calls could turn into a costly lesson. Position accordingly.