Why 911K Jobs Vanished—And What It Means for the Economy

The U.S. labor market appears to be losing steam, with the latest data revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicating that job creation over the past year was significantly lower than initially reported. A preliminary benchmark revision, released on September 9, 2025, showed that the U.S. economy added approximately 911,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated for the year ending in March 2025. If confirmed, this would represent the largest annual revision to U.S. jobs data on record and could bring the average monthly job growth for the period down to around 70,500 positions from 146,500.

This downward adjustment has sparked renewed debate over the accuracy and reliability of BLS data, especially amid political tensions. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the agency, questioning the validity of its methodology and even replacing the BLS commissioner after the previous year's data showed a similar downward revision. The current administration has accused the BLS of outdated practices and called for modernization to improve the accuracy and transparency of economic data.

Economists attribute the large revision partly to the limitations of the BLS’s birth-death model, a statistical tool used to estimate job creation and closures. The model is thought to have overestimated job creation at new firms, particularly during the post-pandemic economic recovery. Additionally, declining survey response rates and adjustments for asylum-seekers and other undocumented workers may have contributed to the undercount of employment. The impact was felt across multiple sectors, with the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors showing a downward revision of 226,000 jobs, and the information sector revised down by 67,000 jobs.

The downward revision reinforces expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming weeks. With the labor market showing signs of a prolonged slowdown and inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target, the central bank is widely expected to lower interest rates at its September 17 meeting. A major factor in this decision is the labor market's weakening, with average monthly job growth already having dropped to 29,000 in the summer of 2025. While most economists anticipate a modest 0.25 percentage point cut, there is some speculation about the possibility of a larger 0.5 point reduction, especially if the latest Consumer Price Index data, due on September 11, shows a manageable inflation trend.

The revision also highlights the broader challenges facing the BLS, including staffing shortages, outdated data collection methods, and declining public trust in federal economic statistics. The agency has faced budget cuts and operational constraints, including a 20% reduction in staffing since February 2025 and a hiring freeze that has limited its ability to collect and process data efficiently. These issues raise concerns about the quality and reliability of future economic data, which many experts consider vital to both policy decisions and market expectations.

The upcoming full annual benchmark revision, scheduled for February 2026, will provide a more comprehensive view of the labor market's performance over the past year. Until then, the BLS will continue to refine its monthly data through ongoing revisions based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. While these updates are expected to improve accuracy, they also underscore the challenges of balancing timeliness with precision in economic reporting.